黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素

李建春; 周晓雨; 李慧琳; 王玉婷; 袁文华

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.003

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黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素

更新时间：2025-03-14

- 黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素
- Study on Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Measurement and the Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Delta
- 水土保持学报 2025年39卷第1期页码：262-273
- 作者机构：
  
  山东师范大学商学院,济南,250358
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "李建春(1985—)，男，副教授，博士，主要从事土地利用系统、城市规划及区域经济研究。E-mail: lijianchun@sdnu.edu.cn" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社会科学基金项目(23BGL312)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.003
  中图分类号： F301.2
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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李建春, 周晓雨, 李慧琳, 等. 黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素[J]. 水土保持学报, 2025,39(1):262-273.

LI Jianchun, ZHOU Xiaoyu, LI Huilin, et al. Study on Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Measurement and the Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Delta[J]. 2025, 39(1): 262-273.
李建春, 周晓雨, 李慧琳, 等. 黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素[J]. 水土保持学报, 2025,39(1):262-273. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.003.

LI Jianchun, ZHOU Xiaoyu, LI Huilin, et al. Study on Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Measurement and the Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Delta[J]. 2025, 39(1): 262-273. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.003.

摘要

目的黄河三角洲作为典型生态脆弱区，其景观生态风险受多重因素影响，表现尤为突出。系统认知景观风险不仅是优化景观格局的基础，更是有效应对生态风险的关键。方法以黄河三角洲典型城市东营市为研究区，构建生态系统服务价值和“胁迫度-脆弱度-韧性”的景观生态受损概率评估框架。采用ESDA和地理探测器模型，从网格尺度探究城市景观生态风险的空间异质性及影响因素。结果1) 东营市景观生态风险平均值为0.15，呈北部东部高、中偏西南低的空间格局。生态系统服务价值约为3 175.99亿元，低于当年GDP，经济发展表现为不可持续增长，呈由北部、东部沿海向西南部逐步递减的空间格局。生态受损概率为0.43，呈北部东部高低交错、中偏西南较为均衡的空间格局。2)景观生态风险呈显著的空间集聚特征，全局Moran's I指数为0.747。高高风险区主要集中在东营市北部和东部沿海，占风险区面积的32.48%。3)东营市景观生态风险主要受社会经济基础和环境区位条件影响。在全市范围内，海岸线距离是主导因素，决定度为0.43；在城镇区域，人口密度为主导因素，决定度为0.38。结论研究不仅在理论上丰富景观生态风险评估方法，也为黄河三角洲生态保护和风险管理提供实证支持。

Abstract

ObjectiveThe Yellow River Delta

a typical ecological fragile area

faces prominent landscape ecological risk (LER) due to multiple factors. Systematic understanding of landscape risk is crucial for optimizing landscape patterns and effectively addressing ecological challenges.MethodsTaking Dongying

a typical city of the Yellow River Delta

as the study area to construct an assessment framework

which consists of two parts

one containing the ecosystem service value and the other the probability of landscape ecological damage in terms of 'stress-vulnerability-resilience'. The ESDA and Geographic detector were used to explore the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of LER at the grid scale.Results1) The average value of LER in Dongying was 0.15

generally showed a spatial pattern of high in the north and east

and low in the middle and southwest. The total value of ecosystem services was about 3 175.99 billion yuan

Which was lower than the GDP of that year

and the economic growth was unsustainable. The ecosystem service value showed a pattern of gradual diminution from the north and eastern coast to the southwest part. The probability of ecological damage was 0.43

showing a pattern of staggered distribution of high and low in the north and east

relatively balanced in the center and southwest. 2) The LER showed a significant clustering in spatial distribution

with a global Moran's I index of 0.747. In terms of agglomeration zoning

the HH risk agglomeration area accounted for 32.48% of the area of the risk zone

which was mainly distributed in the continuous distribution zone formed by the coastal zone in the north and east of Dongying. 3) The LER of Dongying was mainly dominated by factors of socio-economic foundation and environmental location conditions. In the citywide area

the determinant degree of coastline distance was 0.43

which was the primary factor dominating the urban LER. In contrast

in the urban area

the determinant degreee of population density was 0.38

which was the primary factor influencing the urban LER.ConclusionsThis study enriches the LER assessment method theoretically

and provides an empirical support for ecological protection and risk management in the Yellow River Delta.

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references

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