基于气候和土地利用变化的云南省水源涵养功能时空演变及驱动力分析

刘俸汝; 赵俊三; 林伊琳; 陈国平; 张龙江; 彭苏芬

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.033

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

基于气候和土地利用变化的云南省水源涵养功能时空演变及驱动力分析

更新时间：2025-02-18

- 基于气候和土地利用变化的云南省水源涵养功能时空演变及驱动力分析
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Water Conservation [JP] Function in Yunnan Province Based on Climate and Land Use Change
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第5期页码：212-224
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明,650093
  2. 智慧矿山地理空间信息集成创新重点实验室,昆明,650093
  3. 云南省高校自然资源空间信息集成与应用科技创新团队,昆明,650211
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "刘俸汝(1998—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事生态系统服务与土地利用、国土空间规划研究。E-mail:2418895138@qq.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(42301304)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.033
  中图分类号： X171.1
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘俸汝, 赵俊三, 林伊琳, 等. 基于气候和土地利用变化的云南省水源涵养功能时空演变及驱动力分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(5):212-224.

LIU Fengru, ZHAO Junsan, LIN Yilin, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Water Conservation [JP] Function in Yunnan Province Based on Climate and Land Use Change[J]. 2024, 38(5): 212-224.
刘俸汝, 赵俊三, 林伊琳, 等. 基于气候和土地利用变化的云南省水源涵养功能时空演变及驱动力分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(5):212-224. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.033.

LIU Fengru, ZHAO Junsan, LIN Yilin, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Water Conservation [JP] Function in Yunnan Province Based on Climate and Land Use Change[J]. 2024, 38(5): 212-224. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.033.

摘要

[目的] 探讨水源涵养功能是应对未来气候变化的重要途径

现有研究主要侧重于历史和现状的水源涵养功能评估

缺乏对未来水源涵养功能的认识

限制了对区域可持续发展和动态管理的指导价值。[方法] 以云南省为例

结合系统动力学模型、斑块级土地利用变化模拟模型(PLUS模型)和InVEST模型

构建了未来气候和土地利用变化影响下水源涵养评价框架。该框架可在未来气候变化和不同经济发展的背景下预测土地利用变化和评估水源涵养。基于3种共享社会经济路径和典型浓度路径(SSP1-1.9、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)的耦合情景对云南省水源涵养进行评价

并利用最优参数地理探测器识别云南省水源涵养时空变化的主要驱动因子。[结果] (1)2000—2030年

耕地、未利用地面积整体减少

水域和建设用地面积逐渐增加

林地和草地呈波浪线变化;不同情景的土地利用变化趋势大致相同

表现为草地>建设用地>耕地>未利用地>水域>林地。(2)2000—2020年水源涵养量总体上呈现逐渐减少趋势

减少2.27×109 m3;受不同气候和土地利用模式的影响

不同情景下的水源涵养量有所差异

其中SSP2-4.5情景下的水源涵养量最高

为9.338×109 m3;空间上呈“西南高东北低”的分布格局。(3)地理探测结果表明

年平均降水量、土壤类型、DEM是影响水源涵养时空分布差异的主要驱动因素

且降水量与其他因素交互显著增强。[结论] 研究根据云南省水源涵养时空分异提出不同建议

为云南省生态系统服务研究和可持续发展路线规划提供科学参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Exploring the water-holding function is an important way to cope with future climate change. Existing research mainly focuses on the assessment of historical and current water-holding function

and lacks the understanding of the future water-holding function

which limits the value of guiding the sustainable development and dynamic management of the region. [Methods] Taking Yunnan Province as an example

this paper combined the system dynamics model

patch-level land use change simulation model (PLUS model)

and InVEST model to build a water conservation evaluation framework under the impact of future climate and land use change. The framework can predict land use change and assess water conservation in the context of future climate change and different economic developments. Water conservation in Yunnan Province was evaluated based on the coupling scenarios of three shared socioeconomic paths and typical concentration paths (SSP1-1.9

SSP2-4.5

SSP5-8.5). The main driving factors of temporal and spatial changes in water conservation in Yunnan Province were identified by using the optimal parameter geodetector. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2030

the total area of cultivated land and unused land decreased

the area of water area and construction land increased gradually

and the forest land and grassland changed in a wavy line; The trend of land use change in different scenarios is roughly the same

namely: grassland > construction land > cultivated land > unused land > water area > forest land. (2) From 2000 to 2020

water conservation showed a gradually decreasing trend

decreasing by 2.27×109m3; Under the influence of different climate and land use models

the water conservation under different scenarios is different

and the water conservation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is the highest

which is 9.338×109m3. The spatial distribution pattern is "high in the southwest and low in the northeast". (3) The results of geographical detection show that the average annual precipitation

soil type

and DEM are the main driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal distribution difference of water conservation

and the interaction between precipitation and other factors is significantly enhanced. [Conclusion] According to the temporal and spatial differences in water conservation in Yunnan Province

different suggestions were put forward in this study to provide scientific reference for ecosystem service research and sustainable development route planning in Yunnan Province.

关键词

Keywords

references

COSTANZA R, DE GROOT R, BRAAT L, et al. Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?[J].Ecosystem Services,2017,28:1-16.

COSTANZA R, D’ARGE R, DE GROOT R, et al. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(1):3-15.

兰翔宇,叶冲冲,王毅,等.1995—2014年青藏高原水源涵养功能时空演变特征及其驱动力分析[J].草地学报,2021,29(S1):80-92. LAN X Y, YE C C, WANG Y, et al. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and its driving forces of water conservation function on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2014[J].Acta Agrestia Sinica,2021,29(S1):80-92.

李佳,邵全琴,刘纪远.基于综合蓄水能力法的森林水源涵养功能估算:以江西兴国县为例[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(4):83-87. LI J, SHAO Q Q, LIU J Y. Forest conservation estimation based on the integrated storage capacity method: A case study of Xingguo County in Jiangxi[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2012,27(4):83-87.

CHEN H, CHEN K, YANG M H. A new hysteresis model of the water retention curve based on pore expansion and contraction[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2020,121:e103482.

王升堂,孙贤斌,夏韦,等.生态系统水源涵养功能的重要性评价:以皖西大别山森林为例[J].资源开发与市场,2019,35(10):1252-1257. WANG S T, SUN X B, XIA W, et al. Evaluating on significance function of water conservation in forest ecosystem: Taking Dabieshan Mountain in western Anhui Province as an example[J].Resource Development and Market,2019,35(10):1252-1257.

FU C, LIU Y Z, LI F, et al. Response of hydrological ecosystem services to land-use change and risk assessment in Jiangxi Province, China[J].Heliyon,2024,10(3):e24911.

ZHAO L L, SHEN Y J, LIU M Z, et al. The impacts of land use changes on water yield and water conservation services in Zhangjiakou, Beijing’s upstream watershed, China[J].Sustainability,2023,15(14):e11077.

崔景轩,李秀芬,郑海峰,等.典型气候条件下东北地区生态系统水源涵养功能特征[J].生态学报,2019,39(9):3026-3038. CUI J X, LI X F, ZHENG H F, et al. Spatial analysis of water conservation function in Northeast China under different climatic conditions[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2019,39(9):3026-3038.

陈书林.基于TVDI模型的森林生态系统水源涵养服务功能研究[J].生态经济,2016,32(12):182-186. CHEN S L. Estimating forest ecosystem service function of water conservation based on TVDI[J].Ecological Economy,2016,32(12):182-186.

陈佩佩,张利华,崔越,等.基于BEPS-Terrainlab V

2.0

模型的鄂西犟河流域NPP模拟及环境响应分析[J].自然资源遥感,2023,35(4):273-281. CHEN P P, ZHANG L H, CUI Y, et al. Net primary productivity simulation and environmental response analysis of the Jianghe River Basin in western Hubei Province based on the BEPS-TerrainLabV

2.0

model[J].Remote Sensing for Natural Resources,2023,35(4):273-281.

WANG Z Y, CAO J S. Spatial-temporal pattern study on water conservation function using the SWAT model[J].Water Supply,2021,21(7):3629-3642.

包玉斌,李婷,柳辉,等.基于InVEST模型的陕北黄土高原水源涵养功能时空变化[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):664-676. BAO Y B, LI T, LIU H, et al. Spatial and temporal changes of water conservation of Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province by InVEST model[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):664-676.

张成虎,刘菊,胡宝清,等.广西西江流域水源涵养服务空间格局及其影响因素[J].浙江农林大学学报,2022,39(5):1104-1113. ZHANG C H, LIU J, HU B Q, et al. Spatial pattern and its influencing factors of water conservation services in Xijiang River Basin, Guangxi[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2022,39(5):1104-1113.

苑跃,张亮,崔林林.若尔盖高原生态系统水源涵养功能时空变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2020,39(8):2713-2723. YUAN Y, ZHANG L, CUI L L. Spatiotemporal variations of water conservation capacity in Ruoergai Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2020,39(8):2713-2723.

吕乐婷,任甜甜,孙才志,等.1980—2016年三江源国家公园水源供给及水源涵养功能时空变化研究[J].生态学报,2020,40(3):993-1003. LV L T, REN T T, SUN C Z, et al. Spatial and temporal changes of water supply and water conservation function in Sanjiangyuan National Park from 1980 to 2016[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2020,40(3):993-1003.

王冶,薛忠财,王瑞丰,等.1990—2017年承德市水源涵养功能时空变化格局与影响因素研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2022,38(9):1138-1146. WANG Y, XUE Z C, WANG R F, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of water retention and its influencing factors in Chengde city from 1990 to 2017[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2022,38(9):1138-1146.

龚诗涵,肖洋,郑华,等.中国生态系统水源涵养空间特征及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2017,37(7):2455-2462. GONG S H, XIAO Y, ZHENG H, et al. Spatial patterns of ecosystem water conservation in China and its impact factors analysis[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(7):2455-2462.

李怡颖,范继辉,廖莹.基于InVEST模型的张家口市水源涵养功能时空差异分析[J].草业科学,2020,37(7):1313-1324. LI Y Y, FAN J H, LIAO Y. Analysis of spatial and temporal differences in water conservation function in Zhangjiakou based on the InVEST model[J].Pratacultural Science,2020,37(7):1313-1324.

刘树锋,陈记臣,关帅,等.基于InVEST模型的未来土地利用变化对水源涵养功能的影响:以杨溪河流域为例[J].安徽农业科学,2020,48(15):67-70. LIU S F, CHEN J C, GUAN S, et al. Effect of future land use change on water conservation function based on InVEST model: Taking Yangxi River Basin as an example[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2020,48(15):67-70.

姜彤,吕嫣冉,黄金龙,等.CMIP6模式新情景(SSP-RCP)概述及其在淮河流域的应用[J].气象科技进展,2020,10(5):102-109. JIANG T, LV Y R, HUANG J L, et al. New scenarios of CMIP6 model (SSP-RCP) and its application in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2020,10(5):102-109.

范泽孟.基于SSP-RCP不同情景的京津冀地区土地覆被变化模拟[J].地理学报,2022,77(1):228-244. FAN Z M. Simulation of land cover change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under different SSP-RCP scenarios[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2022,77(1):228-244.

SUN L, YU H J, SUN M X, et al. Coupled impacts of climate and land use changes on regional ecosystem services[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2023,326:e116753.

胡烨婷,李天宏.基于SD-CA模型的快速城市化地区土地利用空间格局变化预测[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2022,58(2):372-382. HU Y T, LI T H. Forecasting spatial pattern of land use change in rapidly urbanized regions based on SD-CA model[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2022,58(2):372-382.

张晓荣,李爱农,南希,等.基于FLUS模型和SD模型耦合的中巴经济走廊土地利用变化多情景模拟[J].地球信息科学学报,2020,22(12):2393-2409. ZHANG X R, LI A N, NAN X, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of land use change along China-Pakistan economic corridor through coupling FLUS model with SD model[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2020,22(12):2393-2409.

顾茉莉,叶长盛,李鑫,等.基于SD模型的江西省土地利用变化情景模拟[J].地理与地理信息科学,2022,38(4):95-103. GU M L, YE C S, LI X, et al. Scenario simulation of land use change in Jiangxi Province based on SD model[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2022,38(4):95-103.

林伊琳,赵俊三,陈国平,等.基于MCR-FLUS-Markov模型的区域国土空间格局优化[J].农业机械学报,2021,52(4):159-170. LIN Y L, ZHAO J S, CHEN G P, et al. Optimization of regional territory space pattern based on MCR-FLUS-Markov model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(4):159-170.

LI Y M, YANG X, WU B W, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Kunming based on PLUS and InVEST models[J].PeerJ,2023,11:e15285.

CAMACHO OLMEDO M T, PONTIUS R G, PAEGELOW M, et al. Comparison of simulation models in terms of quantity and allocation of land change[J].Environmental Modelling and Softw are,2015,69:214-221.

姜彤,苏布达,王艳君,等.共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据集[J].气候变化研究进展,2022,18(3):381-383. JIANG T, SU B D, WANG Y J, et al. Gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for 2020—2100[J].Climate Change Research,2022,18(3):381-383.

LUO G P, YIN C Y, CHEN X, et al. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China[J].Ecological Complexity,2010,7(2):198-207.

云南省水利厅.云南省水资源公报(2010年).(2024-05-25). https://www.docin.com/p-1038083962.html. Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department. Yunnan Provincial water resources bulletin (2010) . (2024-05-25). https://www.docin.com/p-1038083962.html.

云南省水利厅.云南省水资源公报(2020年). (2024-05-25). http://wcb.yn.gov.cn/html/shuiziyuangongbao/?time=2020. Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department. Yunnan Provincial water resources bulletin (2020) . (2024-05-25). http://wcb.yn.gov.cn/html/shuiziyuangongbao/?time=2020.

王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134. WANG J F, XU C D. Geodetector: Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.

乔亚军,张慧,韩晓盈,等.基于地理空间角度的黑龙江省水源涵养功能变化的驱动因素分析[J].生态学报,2023,43(7):2711-2721. QIAO Y J, ZHANG H, HAN X Y, et al. Exploring drivers of water conservation function variation in Heilongjiang Province from a geospatial perspective[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2023,43(7):2711-2721.

浏览量

1668

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的窟野河流域水源涵养量时空演变与预测

洱海流域水源涵养与土壤保持功能时空演变及权衡协同关系

1990—2020年西南高山峡谷区水源涵养功能时空变化及其驱动因素

宁夏水源涵养功能时空演变格局及其归因分析

基于InVEST-PLUS模型的陕西省水源涵养量估算及预测