滇中城市群碳储量时空演变及其对LULC变化的响应
Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration and Its Response to LULC Change
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第4期 页码：246-256
- 作者机构：
1. 云南师范大学地理学部,昆明,650500
2. 西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心,昆明,650500
- 作者简介：
[ "彭双云(1978—),男,博士,教授,主要从事土地利用变化的生态环境效应研究。E-mail:frankmei@126.com" ]
- 基金信息：国家自然科学基金项目(42261073,41971369,42201037);云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目(202305AC160083,202205AC160014);云南省基础研究专项重点项目(202201AS070024,202001AS070032);云南省基础研究专项面上项目(202401AT070103);云南师范大学大学生科研训练基金项目(KX2022136)
DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.04.020
中图分类号： K903;X144-
纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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彭双云, 陈明潇, 张老伟, 等. 滇中城市群碳储量时空演变及其对LULC变化的响应[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(4):246-256.
PENG Shuangyun, CHEN Mingxiao, ZHANG Laowei, et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration and Its Response to LULC Change[J]. 2024, 38(4): 246-256.
彭双云, 陈明潇, 张老伟, 等. 滇中城市群碳储量时空演变及其对LULC变化的响应[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(4):246-256. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.04.020.
PENG Shuangyun, CHEN Mingxiao, ZHANG Laowei, et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration and Its Response to LULC Change[J]. 2024, 38(4): 246-256. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.04.020.
摘要
[目的] 通过分析滇中城市群碳储量的时空演变特征及其对土地利用/覆被(land use/land cover
LULC)变化的响应
以深化对该区域碳循环的理解
从而有效地指导碳管理和生态恢复策略的制定。[方法] 利用InVEST和PLUS模型模拟并预测1990—2030年滇中城市群碳储量的时空演变规律
结合土地覆被变化数据
定量分析碳储量与LULC变化之间的响应关系。[结果] (1)1990—2020年滇中城市群的土地类型主要以林地、耕地和草地为主
林地、耕地和建设用地呈增长趋势
其中建设用地增幅最大;(2)滇中城市群碳储量呈现出"先增后减
逐渐趋于平稳"的变化特征
2000年达到最高值
为1.46×109 t
到2020年下降到1.45×109 t
空间上呈"西高东低"的分布特征;(3)未来不同发展情景下的碳储量预测显示
与2020年相比
4个情景到2030年碳储量均呈下降趋势
其中生态发展情景下降最少
相比2020年下降0.43×107 t
而耕地发展情景下降最为显著
相比2020年下降1.05×107 t;(4)耕地和林地间的转变是影响碳储量的主要因素
其中耕地向林地的转换对滇中城市群碳储量增加尤为关键
林地增加可显著提升区域碳储量
而草地减少则对碳储量产生负面影响。[结论] 林地和耕地转换对增加或降低滇中城市群碳储量具有显著影响。
Abstract
[Objective] This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover (LULC) change
so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies. [Methods] InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030. By combining data on LULC change
the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020
the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland
cropland
and grassland
and forestland
cropland
and construction land showed an increasing trend
among which construction land increased the largest. (2) Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of "first increase and then decrease
gradually stabilize"
reaching a maximum value of 1.46×109 t in 2000
and decreasing to 1.45×109 t in 2020
showing a spatial distribution characteristic of "higher in the west
lower in the east". (3) The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that
compared with 2020
all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030
among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline
with a reduction of 0.43×107 t compared with 2020
while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline
with a reduction of 1.05×107 t compared with 2020. (4) The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage. Specifically
the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage
while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage. [Conclusion] The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.
关键词
Keywords
references
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