基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测

李倩; 王成军; 冯涛; 杜传甲; 张炳林

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.015

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基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测
- Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Shaanxi Province Based on the SD-PLUS Coupled Model
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第3期页码：195-206
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安建筑科技大学管理学院,西安,710055
  2. 陕西省矿产地质调查中心,西安,710068
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "李倩(1998—),女,广东佛山人,硕士研究生,主要从事资源与环境管理研究。E-mail:1398115797@qq.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(71872141,72072140);陕西省公益性地质调查项目(202202)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.015
  中图分类号： S154.3
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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李倩, 王成军, 冯涛, 等. 基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(3):195-206.

LI Qian, WANG Chengjun, FENG Tao, et al. Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Shaanxi Province Based on the SD-PLUS Coupled Model[J]. 2024, 38(3): 195-206.
李倩, 王成军, 冯涛, 等. 基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(3):195-206. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.015.

LI Qian, WANG Chengjun, FENG Tao, et al. Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Shaanxi Province Based on the SD-PLUS Coupled Model[J]. 2024, 38(3): 195-206. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.015.

摘要

[目的] 为探讨不同土地利用方式对区域生态系统碳储量的影响。[方法] 以陕西省为研究对象

利用SD-PLUS耦合模型

采用国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)提出的耦合共享社会经济路线和代表性浓度路线(SSP-RCP)情景

对2030年陕西省的土地利用变化进行预测

然后利用InVEST模型模拟未来不同情景下陕西省碳储量及其空间分布。[结果] (1)对构建的SD模型进行历史检验

其误差＜5%

PLUS模型模拟的2020年土地利用Kappa指数为0.86

模型精度和可靠性总体符合要求;(2)3种情景下

未来建设用地面积均增加

增长速率从低到高的情景分别为SSP126、SSP245、SSP585;在所有情景下

林地面积均增加

水域面积均保持稳定;草地面积在SSP126情景下有小幅度增加

其他情景下减少;耕地面积3种情景下均减少;(3)3种情景下

陕西省碳储量均减少

关中平原建设用地的扩张占用大量的耕地是造成陕西省碳储量下降的主要原因。[结论] 在SSP126情景下

建设用地扩张所占用的生态用地面积最小

碳储量损失最少

该情景同时考虑社会经济发展及生态保护的需要

可为未来陕西省国土资源保护和高质量发展提供参考模式。

Abstract

[Objective] This study was aimed to explore the impact of different land use patterns on regional ecosystem carbon storage. [Methods] In this paper

using the SD-PLUS coupled model and the coupled shared socio-economic path and representative concentration path (SSP-RCP) scenario proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

the land use changes in Shaanxi province in 2030 were projected

and then the different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model were used to predict the Shaanxi Province’s carbon storage and its spatial distribution under different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model. [Results] (1) The SD model constructed was tested historically

and its error was less than 5%

and the Kappa index of land use in 2020 simulated by the PLUS model was 0.86

and the accuracy and reliability of the model generally met the requirements. (2) Under the three scenarios

the area of future construction land increased

and the scenarios with the lowest to highest growth rates were: SSP126

SSP245

SSP585. Under all scenarios

the area of forest land increased

and the area of watersheds remained stable; the area of grassland had a small increase under the SSP126 scenario

and decreased in other scenarios; and the area of arable land decreased in all three scenarios. (3) Carbon stock in Shaanxi Province decreased under all three scenarios

with the decrease in carbon stock in the Guanzhong plain being the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Shaanxi province. [Conclusion] The area of ecological land occupied by the expansion of construction land is the smallest under the SSP126 scenario

which takes into account both socio-economic development and the need for ecological protection

and can provide a reference model for the future protection of land resources and high-quality development in Shaanxi province.

关键词

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