气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟

余文广; 陈芸芝; 唐丽芳; 汪小钦

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.034

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气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟
- Simulation of Runoff and Sediment Changes in the Minjiang River Basin Under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第2期页码：216-233
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 福州大学数字中国研究院(福建),福州,350108
  2. 福州大学空间数据挖掘和信息共享教育部重点实验室,福州,350108
  3. 福建省水土保持实验站,福州,350001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA23100503);福建省水利科技项目(MSK202210,MSK202214);福建省水土保持实验站委托技术服务项目(SBSYZ332618363422021038)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.034
  中图分类号： P339
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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余文广, 陈芸芝, 唐丽芳, 等. 气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(2):216-233.

YU Wenguang, CHEN Yunzhi, TANG Lifang, et al. Simulation of Runoff and Sediment Changes in the Minjiang River Basin Under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios[J]. 2024, 38(2): 216-233.
余文广, 陈芸芝, 唐丽芳, 等. 气候和土地利用变化情景下闽江流域水沙变化模拟[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(2):216-233. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.034.

YU Wenguang, CHEN Yunzhi, TANG Lifang, et al. Simulation of Runoff and Sediment Changes in the Minjiang River Basin Under Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios[J]. 2024, 38(2): 216-233. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.034.

摘要

[目的] 模拟未来土地利用和气候影响下的流域水沙变化有利于制定适合的流域管理计划。[方法] 基于土地利用和气象数据

结合CMIP6气候模式数据、PLUS模型和SWAT模型

定量模拟2030年土地利用及不同气候情景下径流和泥沙的时空变化。[结果] (1) SWAT模型在闽江流域月尺度模拟精度较好

其中径流模拟的R2范围为0.80~0.95

NSE范围为0.75~0.91;泥沙模拟的R2范围为0.75~0.98

NSE范围为0.64~0.94。(2)利用2020年土地利用数据对PLUS模型进行精度评估的Kappa系数为0.77

模拟2030年闽江流域建设用地和耕地将分别增加325.64

1 157.51 km2。(3) SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下

2025—2035年平均降水量分别增加0.15%和2.18%

年平均气温分别增加0.23

0.62℃。(4)低碳情景和高碳情景下

仅土地利用变化导致年平均径流量相较于基准期分别增加0.08%和0.07%

年平均输沙量分别增加0.24%和减少0.05%;仅气候变化导致年平均径流量相较基准期分别减少4.76%和4.11%

年平均输沙量分别增加18.12%和0.13%;土地利用和气候综合影响导致年平均径流量相较于基准期分别减少4.57%和3.93%

年平均输沙量分别增加18.28%和0.33%。(5)未来气候和土地利用综合变化情景下

地表径流和产沙量较高且增幅较大的区域集中在以南平邵武市为中心的流域西北部和以三明将乐县为中心的流域西南部。[结论] 研究结果为未来闽江流域的合理开发建设提供一定参考依据。

Abstract

[Objective] Simulating the change of runoff and sediment changes in the watershed under the influence of land use and climate in the future is conducive to making suitable management plans. [Methods] Based on land use and meteorological data

combined with CMIP6 climate model data

PLUS model and SWAT model

the temporal and spatial changes of land use and runoff and sediment under different climate scenarios in 2030 were quantitatively simulated. [Results] (1) The SWAT model exhibited good accuracy in monthly scale in simulation of Minjiang River Basin

in which the R2 and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) ranged from 0.80 to 0.95 and 0.75 to 0.91

respectively. The R2 and NSE ranged from 0.75 to 0.98 and 0.64 to 0.94 respectively. (2) Using the land use data of 2020 to evaluate the accuracy of the PLUS model

the Kappa coefficient was 0.77

and the simulated construction land and cultivated land in the Minjiang River Basin in 2030 would increase by 325.64 km2 and 1 157.51 km2

respectively. (3) Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

the average precipitation in 2025—2035 would increase by 0.15% and 2.18%

and the average annual temperature would increase by 0.23 and 0.62 ℃

respectively. (4) In the low carbon and high carbon scenarios

only land use change led to an increase of 0.08% and 0.07% in annual mean runoff

and an increase of 0.24% and decreased of 0.05% in annual mean sediment transport

respectively

compared with the baseline period. Compared with the baseline period

the mean annual runoff decreased by 4.76% and 4.11%

and the mean annual sediment transport increased by 18.12% and 0.13%

respectively. The combined effects of land use and climate resulted in a decrease of 4.57% and 3.93% in annual average runoff and an increase of 18.28% and 0.33% in annual average sediment transport compared with the base period

respectively. (5) Under the scenario of future climate and land use comprehensive change

the areas with higher and larger increase in surface runoff and sediment yield were concentrated in the northwestern of the basin centered on Shaowu City in Nanping and the southwest of the basin centered on Jiangle County in Sanming. [Conclusion] These research results provide some reference for the reasonable development and construction of Minjiang River basin in the future.

关键词

Keywords

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