基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征

智菲; 周振宏; 赵铭; 王诗琪

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.033

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Hefei Ecosystem Based on PLUS and InVEST Models
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第2期页码：205-215
- 作者机构：
  
  安徽农业大学林学与园林学院,合肥,230036
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41301650)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.033
  中图分类号： X171.1
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
智菲, 周振宏, 赵铭, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(2):205-215.

ZHI Fei, ZHOU Zhenhong, ZHAO Ming, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Hefei Ecosystem Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. 2024, 38(2): 205-215.
智菲, 周振宏, 赵铭, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(2):205-215. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.033.

ZHI Fei, ZHOU Zhenhong, ZHAO Ming, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Hefei Ecosystem Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. 2024, 38(2): 205-215. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.02.033.

摘要

[目的] 为寻求"双碳"目标导向下的合肥市城市发展新方案。[方法] 依据合肥市2000—2020年5期土地利用数据

在合肥市国土空间规划指引下

运用PLUS模型模拟得到2035年合肥市土地利用时空演变规律

耦合InVEST模型探究多情景下合肥市碳储量时空变化特征

并进一步挖掘土地综合利用程度对碳储量的影响。[结果] (1)2000—2020年合肥市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地、林地减少

其中耕地为建设用地扩增主要来源。自然发展和农田资源保护情景的土地变化规律大致相同

主要表现为耕地、林地、水体减少;绿色汇增城市发展情景下

林地相比其余2个情景面积由减少转为增加。(2)2000—2020年合肥市碳储量逐年递减

其中2005—2010年碳损失最为剧烈。到2035年

自然发展情景、农田资源保护情景、绿色汇增城市发展情景碳储量分别为138.96×106

140.13×106

139.81×106 t。农田资源保护情景下

碳储量明显增加区域最低

建设用地扩张减缓;绿色汇增城市发展情景下

林地由碳损失转为碳固持

是最具固碳潜力的发展趋势。(3)绿色汇增城市发展情景土地利用率最高

可有效降低土地综合利用程度对碳储量流失的威胁。[结论] 农田资源保护情景与绿色汇增城市发展情景均有助于城市固碳发展

实施生态保护与城市发展并行政策

调整土地综合利用模式有助于改善城市碳流失。

Abstract

[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of "double carbon" goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020

under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City

the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model

and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land

among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same

mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land

forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario

the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020

and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035

the carbon reserves of natural development scenario

farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t

140.13×106 t

and 139.81×106 t

respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario

the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development

forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration

which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest

which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development

and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

关键词

Keywords

references

DUBROVINA I A, MOSHKINA E V, TUYUNEN A V, et al. Dynamics of soil properties and ecosystem carbon stocks for different types of land use (middle taiga of Karelia)[J].Eurasian Soil Science, 2022,55(9):1209-1221.

WANG L G, ZHU R, YIN Z L, et al. Impacts of land-use change on the spatio-temporal patterns of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu Province, Northwest China[J].Remote Sensing,2022,14(13):e3164.

唐娇娇,余成,张委伟,等.基于CLUE-S和InVEST模型的苏州市生境质量评估及预测[J].环境工程技术学报,2023,13(1):377-385. TANG J J, YU C, ZHANG W W, et al. Habitat quality assessment and prediction in Suzhou based on CLUE-S and InVEST models[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2023,13(1):377-385.

刘家福,席兰兰,张尧,等.基于CA-Markov与InVEST模型的吉林省生态系统服务价值模拟及预测[J].水土保持通报,2020,40(6):153-159. LIU J F, XI L L, ZHANG Y, et al. A study on simulation and prediction of ecosystem service value in Jilin Province based on CA-markov and InVEST model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,40(6):153-159.

张芳,汤国安,曹敏,等.基于ANN-CA模型的黄土小流域正负地形演化模拟[J].地理与地理信息科学,2013,29(1):28-31. ZHANG F, TANG G A, CAO M, et al. Simulation of positive and negative terrain evolution in small loess watershed based on ANN-CA model[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2013,29(1):28-31.

朱志强,马晓双,胡洪.基于耦合FLUS-InVEST模型的广州市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测[J].水土保持通报,2021,41(2):222-229,239. ZHU Z Q, MA X S, HU H. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of ecosystem carbon stocks in Guangzhou city by coupling FLUS-InVEST models[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,41(2):222-229,239.

庄子薛,谢梦晴,张文萍,等.基于FLUS-InVEST模型的碳储量时空变迁及多情景模拟预测:以成德眉资地区为例[J].风景园林,2022,29(5):38-44. ZHUANG Z X, XIE M Q, ZHANG W P, et al. Temporal and spatial changes and multi-scenario simulation prediction of carbon storage based on FLUS-InVEST model: A case study of Chengdu-Deyang-Meishan-Ziyang area[J]. Landscape Architecture, 2022,29(5):38-44.

谢向东,林孝松,王莹,等.基于PLUS模型的重庆市南川区土地利用多情景模拟[J].长江科学院院报,2023,40(6):86-92,113. XIE X D, LIN X S, WANG Y, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of land use in Nanchuan district of Chongqing based on PLUS model[J].Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,2023,40(6):86-92,113.

向书江,张骞,王丹,等.近20年重庆市主城区碳储量对土地利用/覆被变化的响应及脆弱性分析[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(5):1198-1213. XIANG S J, ZHANG Q, WANG D, et al. Response and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage to LUCC in the main urban area of Chongqing during 2000—2020[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2022,37(5):1198-1213.

LIANG X, GUAN Q F, CLARKE K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2021,85:e101569.

孙欣欣,薛建辉,董丽娜.基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的南京市生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测[J].生态与农村环境学报,2023,39(1):41-51. SUN X X, XUE J H, DONG L N. Spatiotemporal change and prediction of carbon storage in Nanjing ecosystem based on PLUS model and InVEST model[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2023,39(1):41-51.

伍丹,朱康文,张晟,等.基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的成渝经济区碳储量演化分析[J].三峡生态环境监测,2022,7(2):85-96. WU D, ZHU K W, ZHANG S, et al. Evolution analysis of carbon stock in Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone based on PLUS model and InVEST model[J].Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges,2022,7(2):85-96.

孙方虎,方凤满,洪炜林,等.基于PLUS和InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量演化分析与预测[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(1):151-158. SUN F H, FANG F M, HONG W L, et al. Evolution analysis and prediction of carbon storage in Anhui Province based on PLUS and InVEST model[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,37(1):151-158.

李文静,吴伟成.基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的南昌市碳储量时空演变研究[J].江西农业学报,2023,35(3):157-165. LI W J, WU W C. Spatio-temporal evolution of carbon storage in Nanchang city based on PLUS model and InVEST model[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2023,35(3):157-165.

张斌,李璐,夏秋月,等."三线"约束下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响:以武汉城市圈为例[J].生态学报,2022,42(6):2265-2280. ZHANG B, LI L, XIA Q Y, et al. Land use change and its impact on carbon storage under the constraints of "three lines": A case study of Wuhan City circle[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2022,42(6):2265-2280.

赫晓慧,徐雅婷,范学峰,等.中原城市群区域碳储量的时空变化和预测研究[J].中国环境科学,2022,42(6):2965-2976. HE X H, XU Y T, FAN X F, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of regional carbon storage in Zhongyuan Urban agglomeration[J].China Environmental Science,2022,42(6):2965-2976.

李克让,王绍强,曹明奎.中国植被和土壤碳贮量[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2003,33(1):72-80. LI K R, WANG S Q, CAO M K. Vegetation and soil carbon storage in China[J].Science in China,Ser D,2003,33(1):72-80.

解宪丽,孙波,周慧珍,等.中国土壤有机碳密度和储量的估算与空间分布分析[J].土壤学报,2004,41(1):35-43.XIE X L, SUN B, ZHOU H Z, et al. Organic carbon density and storage in soils of China and spatial analysis[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2004,41(1):35-43.

徐丽,何念鹏,于贵瑞.2010s中国陆地生态系统碳密度数据集[J].中国科学数据,2019,4(1):90-96. XU L, HE N P, YU G R. A dataset of carbon density in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems(2010s)[J].China Scientific Data,2019,4(1):90-96.

SHI M J, WU H Q, FAN X, et al. Trade-offs and synergies of multiple ecosystem services for different land use scenarios in the Yili River valley, China[J].Sustainability,2021,13(3):e1577.

DING Q L, CHEN Y, BU L T, et al. Multi-scenario analysis of habitat quality in the Yellow River Delta by coupling FLUS with InVEST model[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2021,18(5):e2389.

ALAM S A, STARR M, CLARK B J F. Tree biomass and soil organic carbon densities across the Sudanese woodland savannah: A regional carbon sequestration study[J].Journal of Arid Environments,2013,89:67-76.

陈光水,杨玉盛,刘乐中,等.森林地下碳分配(TBCA)研究进展[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2007,2(1):34-42. CHEN G S, YANG Y S, LIU L Z, et al. Research review on total belowground carbon allocation in forest ecosystems[J].Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment,2007,2(1):34-42.

曹秀凤.基于生态安全格局和PLUS模型的合肥市国土空间生态修复成效评价[D].长春:吉林大学,2023. CAO X F. Evaluation of ecological restoration effects of land use in Hefei City based on ecological security pattern and the PLUS Model[D].Changchun: Jilin University,2023.

李苗, 臧淑英, 万鲁河, 等. 哈尔滨市城乡结合部土地利用时空变化[J].测绘科学,2018,43(6):52-57. LI M, ZANG S Y, WAN L H, et al. Spatial-temporal variation of land use in rural-urban continuum of Harbin city[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2018,43(6):52-57.

金浩宇,鞠琴,曲珍,等.长江源区1980—2010年土地利用变化及影响分析研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2019,30(4):78-85. JIN H Y, JU Q, QU Z, et al. Land use change and impact analysis in the source region of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2010[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2019,30(4):78-85.

庄大方,刘纪远.中国土地利用程度的区域分异模型研究[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):105-111. ZHUANG D F, LIU J Y. Study on the model of regional differentiation of land use degree in China[J].Journal of Natrual Resources,1997,12(2):105-111.

位贺杰,杨一鸣,吴群.多雾霾城市绿地空气净化服务与景观格局的关系:以河南省安阳市区为例[J].水土保持通报,2021,41(4):292-299,309. WEI H J, YANG Y M, WU Q. Relationship between air purification service and landscape pattern of urban green space in city with more haze: Taking Anyang urban area of He’nan Province as an example[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,41(4):292-299,309.

王永琪,马姜明.基于县域尺度珠江-西江经济带广西段土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究[J].生态学报,2020,40(21):7826-7839. WANG Y Q, MA J M. Effects of land use change on ecosystem services value in Guangxi section of the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt at the county scale[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2020,40(21):7826-7839.

李振瑜,张建军,耿玉环.基于空间关系的长江经济带城市群生态效应扩散研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(1):161-171. LI Z Y, ZHANG J J, GENG Y H. Effects of ecological diffusions of cities around Yangtze River economic belt basing on spatial relation[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(1):161-171.

浏览量

658

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三峡库区土地利用变化与土壤侵蚀多情景预测

基于PLUS与InVEST模型的内蒙古自治区土地利用变化及碳储量评估

贵州省退耕还林(草)时空格局及其固碳效应

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的福建省土地利用变化与碳储量评估

基于InVEST-PLUS模型的陕西省水源涵养量估算及预测