多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价

林志; 李石华; 易邦进; 傅涛; 高七算; 孙星玥; 邱利丹

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.005

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多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价
- Multiple Scenario Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space Change Simulation and Effect Evaluation in Yunnan Province
- 水土保持学报 2024年38卷第1期页码：220-230
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明,650093
  2. 云南省基础地理信息中心,昆明,650034
  3. 云南省地质科学研究所,昆明,650051
  4. 云南师范大学地理学部,昆明,650500
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "林志(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地理信息技术开发与应用研究。E-mail:linzhi8989@qq.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(41861051);云南省自然科学基金项目(202101AT070052);云南省高层次科技人才及创新团队选拔专项-中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目(202205AC160014)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.005
  中图分类号： F301.24
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
林志, 李石华, 易邦进, 等. 多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(1):220-230.

LIN Zhi, LI Shihua, YI Bangjin, et al. Multiple Scenario Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space Change Simulation and Effect Evaluation in Yunnan Province[J]. 2024, 38(1): 220-230.
林志, 李石华, 易邦进, 等. 多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价[J]. 水土保持学报, 2024,38(1):220-230. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.005.

LIN Zhi, LI Shihua, YI Bangjin, et al. Multiple Scenario Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space Change Simulation and Effect Evaluation in Yunnan Province[J]. 2024, 38(1): 220-230. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.005.

摘要

[目的] 优化国土空间开发格局和统筹协调"三生"空间格局配置

是实现未来可持续发展的重点任务和根本途径。[方法] 以云南省土地利用为基础

结合自然和社会发展因素

采用MOP-PLUS耦合模型模拟2030年经济优先、生态优先和协同发展3种情景下"三生"空间及效应变化。[结果] (1)3种情景下经济效益分别增长40.29%

32.10%

34.79%

生态效益分别减少0.89%

0(未变)

0.06%

生境质量均值分别下降0.78%

0.38%

0.43%

空间冲突强度均值分别增长2.79%

下降1.21%

下降2.32%;(2)3种情景生活空间均呈上升、生态空间呈下降趋势

生产空间仅在经济优先情景有较小增长;均存在生活空间侵占生产空间、生产空间再掠夺生态空间的情况

生活空间扩张呈中心向四周蚕食趋势;(3)不同发展情景下均伴随一定程度的生境质量下降

通过优化空间布局可平衡空间冲突;相较于其他情景

协同发展情景经济效益增幅适中

生境质量变化幅度相对均衡

空间冲突强度下降最多

符合兼顾生态保护、经济发展、社会进步的多重目标。[结论] 形成的模拟-效应-优化的反馈调控机制

可与不同尺度、不同目标结合开展土地利用变化模拟与效应分析

为国土空间配置提供决策依据。

Abstract

[Objective] To optimizing the pattern of territorial space development and coordinating the pattern of production-living-ecological space is the key task and fundamental way to achieve sustainable development in the future. [Methods] Based on the land use in Yunnan Province and combined with the natural and social development factors

the MOP-PLUS coupling model was used to simulate the changes of production-living-ecological space and its effects under three scenarios of economic priority

ecological priority and collaborative development in 2030. [Results] (1) Under the three scenarios

the economic benefit increased by 40.29%

32.10% and 34.79%

the ecological benefit decreased by 0.89%

0 (unchanged) and 0.06%

the average habitat quality decreased by 0.78%

0.38% and 0.43%

and the average spatial conflict intensity increased by 2.79%

decreased by 1.21% and decreased by 2.32%. (2) Living space increased and ecological space decreased in the three scenarios. Production space only increased slightly in the economic priority scenario. In all cases

living space encroached on production space

and then production space plagued ecological space. The expansion of living space showed a trend of encroaching from the center to the periphery. (3) Habitat quality decreased to some extent under different development scenarios

and spatial conflicts could be balanced by optimizing spatial layout. Compared with other scenarios

the growth of economic benefits in the collaborative development scenario was moderate

the variation range of habitat quality was relatively balanced

and the intensity of spatial conflicts decreased the most

which was in line with the multiple goals of ecological protection

economic development and social progress. [Conclusion] The simulation-effect-optimization feedback regulation mechanism formed in this paper can be combined with different scales and objectives to carry out land use change simulation and effect analysis

and provide a basis for decision-making of territorial space allocation.

关键词

Keywords

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