基于MaxEnt模型的怒江大峡谷泥石流易发性评价和成因

皋子琪; 吕立群; 马超; 周冠宇; 黄锋; 陶正想; 梁锦杭

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.005

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基于MaxEnt模型的怒江大峡谷泥石流易发性评价和成因

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 基于MaxEnt模型的怒江大峡谷泥石流易发性评价和成因
- Assessment and Causes of Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Nvjiang Grand Canyon Based on Maxent Model
- 水土保持学报 2023年37卷第6期页码：34-41
- 作者机构：
  
  北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京,100083
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "皋子琪(1998-),女,在读硕士研究生,主要从事山地灾害研究。E-mail:gzq7770418@163.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0903);国家自然科学基金项目(41907229)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.005
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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皋子琪, 吕立群, 马超, 等. 基于MaxEnt模型的怒江大峡谷泥石流易发性评价和成因[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023,37(6):34-41.

GAO Ziqi, Lü Liqun, MA Chao, et al. Assessment and Causes of Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Nvjiang Grand Canyon Based on Maxent Model[J]. 2023, 37(6): 34-41.
皋子琪, 吕立群, 马超, 等. 基于MaxEnt模型的怒江大峡谷泥石流易发性评价和成因[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023,37(6):34-41. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.005.

GAO Ziqi, Lü Liqun, MA Chao, et al. Assessment and Causes of Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Nvjiang Grand Canyon Based on Maxent Model[J]. 2023, 37(6): 34-41. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.005.

摘要

为进行泥石流易发性分区及环境因子的敏感性评价

选取降水、高程、坡度、坡向、径流量、岩性、断层、归一化植被指数、土壤侵蚀模数等9个环境因子

基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对187个泥石流沟道进行易发性评价。结果表明:导致泥石流易发的主导因素依次是径流量、高程、降水、岩性、断层、坡度、归一化植被指数、土壤侵蚀模数、坡向。依据泥石流灾害易发概率进行易发性分区发现

贡山-福贡段泥石流易发性最强

模型AUC值为0.974

标准差为0.010

模型分析结果与实际结果一致。与研究区山洪沟道9个环境因子进行对比评价发现

泥石流对环境因子的敏感性要比山洪复杂。通过能量分析的方法证明泥石流环境因子的敏感性复杂的原因

表明流域汇水能量对灾害的形成贡献率最大。

Abstract

In order to study the division of debris flow vulnerability and the sensitivity evaluation of environmental factors

9 environmental factors

including precipitation

elevation

slope

aspect

runoff

lithology

fault

normalized differential vegetation index and soil erosion modulus

were selected to evaluate the vulnerability of 187 debris flow gullies based on the maximum entropy (Maxent) model. The results showed that the main factors leading to debris flow were runoff

elevation

precipitation

lithology

fault

slope

normalized differential vegetation index

soil erosion modulus and slope aspect. Based on the probability of debris flow hazards

the vulnerability zoning was carried out. It was found that the Gongshan Derung and Nu Autonomous County-Fugong section had the highest vulnerability

with an AUC of 0.974 and a standard deviation of 0.010. The results of the model analysis were consistent with the actual results. Compared with mountain torrents

the sensitivity of debris flow to environmental factors is more complex than that of mountain torrents. The reason of the complex sensitivity of environmental factors of debris flow is proved by the method of energy analysis. Runoff energy is shown to have the highest contribution to the formation of disasters in the Salween River Grand Canyon Debris.

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