嘉陵江上游径流变化及其影响因素归因分析

师卫钊; 何毅; 邵祎婷

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017

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嘉陵江上游径流变化及其影响因素归因分析

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 嘉陵江上游径流变化及其影响因素归因分析
- Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River
- 水土保持学报 2023年37卷第3期页码：124-131
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安,710127
  2. 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安,710127
  3. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  4. 浙江水利水电学院水利与环境工程学院,杭州,310018
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "师卫钊(2001—),男,陕西咸阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事生态水文与水土保持研究。E-mail:202221174@stumail.nwu.edu.cn" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  中国南北过渡带综合科学考察项目(2017FY100904);中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M633602);陕西省博士后科研项目(2017BSHEDZZ144)
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017
  中图分类号： P333.1
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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师卫钊, 何毅, 邵祎婷. 嘉陵江上游径流变化及其影响因素归因分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023,37(3):124-131.

SHI Weizhao, HE Yi, SHAO Yiting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River[J]. 2023, 37(3): 124-131.
师卫钊, 何毅, 邵祎婷. 嘉陵江上游径流变化及其影响因素归因分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023,37(3):124-131. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017.

SHI Weizhao, HE Yi, SHAO Yiting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River[J]. 2023, 37(3): 124-131. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017.

摘要

近年来

受气候变化与人类活动的双重影响

许多国内外河流的河川径流都受到强烈影响。以嘉陵江上游西汉水的礼县水文站控制流域为研究区

在对1960—2016年研究区年径流量进行突变点分析和趋势分析的基础上

使用8种基于Budyko假设的气候弹性系数法的水量平衡方程式进行流域径流变化归因分析。结果表明:(1)研究区潜在蒸散发呈显著增加趋势(p＜0.01)

径流量呈显著减小趋势(p＜0.01)

降水量呈不显著减少趋势(p＞0.1)

径流量的突变点发生在1994年

并以此为界

把研究时段划分为基准期和变化期;(2)8种基于Budyko假设的方法得出的气候变化对于径流减少的贡献率为40%~50%

人类活动贡献率为50%~60%

占主导作用。在气候变化中

8种方法得出的流域降水的敏感性系数为2~3

流域蒸散发的敏感性系数为-1~-3;(3)人类活动对于径流减少的主要作用形式是通过改变下垫面来表现的。由于植被保护措施实施

1990—2010年研究区域的林地面积增加68.42 km2

在所有土地类型中变化最大

表明人类活动对于下垫面的影响显著。

Abstract

In recent years

due to the dual impact of climate change and human activities

the runoff in many domestic and foreign rivers has been strongly affected. The control basin of Lixian Hydrologic Station in the Xihanshui River basin of the upper reaches of Jialing River was taken as the study area. On the basis of abrupt change point analysis and trend analysis of annual runoff from 1960 to 2016

eight water balance equations of climate elasticity based on the Budyko frame were used to analyze the attribution of runoff changes. The results showed that: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the study area showed a significant increasing trend (p＜0.01)

the runoff showed a significant decreasing trend (p＜0.01)

and the precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend (p＞0.1). The abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1994

and the study period was divided into the base period and the change period. (2) The contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction by 8 methods based on Budyko hypothesis ranged from 40% to 50%

the contribution of human activities is between 50% and 60%

taking the leading role. In climate change

the sensitivity coefficient of precipitation obtained by the eight methods is between 2 and 3

and the sensitivity coefficient of evapotranspiration is between -1 and -3. (3)The main effect of human activities on the reduction of runoff is represented by changing the underlying surface. Due to the implementation of vegetation protection measures

the forest area in the study area increased by 68.42 km2 from 1990 to 2010

the largest change among all land types

indicating that the significant impact of human activities on the underlying surface.

关键词

Keywords

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