1961-2015年雅鲁藏布江流域径流演变规律分析

李浩; 牛乾坤; 王宣宣; 刘浏; 徐宗学

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.016

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1961-2015年雅鲁藏布江流域径流演变规律分析

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 1961-2015年雅鲁藏布江流域径流演变规律分析
- Variation Characteristics of Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1961 to 2015
- 水土保持学报 2021年35卷第1期页码：110-115
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京,100083
  2. 中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京,100083
  3. 北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京,100875
  4. 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京,100875
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "李浩(1996-),男,河南济源人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文及水资源研究。E-mail:Hao.Li.work@outlook.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目（91647202，51961145104）
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.016
  中图分类号： P339
- 纸质出版：2021
- 稿件说明：
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李浩, 牛乾坤, 王宣宣, 等. 1961-2015年雅鲁藏布江流域径流演变规律分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2021,35(1):110-115.

LI Hao, NIU Qiankun, WANG Xuanxuan, et al. Variation Characteristics of Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1961 to 2015[J]. 2021, 35(1): 110-115.
李浩, 牛乾坤, 王宣宣, 等. 1961-2015年雅鲁藏布江流域径流演变规律分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2021,35(1):110-115. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.016.

LI Hao, NIU Qiankun, WANG Xuanxuan, et al. Variation Characteristics of Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1961 to 2015[J]. 2021, 35(1): 110-115. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.016.

摘要

基于雅鲁藏布江流域奴下水文站1961-2015年逐月径流量资料，采用启发式分割算法识别径流突变年份，继而采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验分析径流的长期变化趋势，应用集中度和集中期研究径流的年内变化规律。结果表明：（1）年径流量呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势，且转折点为1992年，即年径流量在转折点前以2.715 mm/a的速率呈现显著的下降趋势，但在转折点后呈现不显著的上升趋势；（2）湿润季径流量占全年径流量的71.6%±4.4%，主导着雅鲁藏布江流域的年径流量变化过程，而在转折点后干旱季径流的变化是年径流呈现增加趋势的另一个重要原因；（3）雅鲁藏布江流域的径流年内分配规律呈"坦化现象"，即径流量最大值出现时间推迟且年内分配更加均匀，这可能归因于该地区植被覆盖状况的恢复和改善。研究结果可以进一步识别气候变化和下垫面在径流变化过程中的作用奠定良好的基础，为区域生态环境可持续发展提供建议和指导。

Abstract

Based on the monthly runoff data of Nuxia hydrological station in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1961 to 2015

the heuristic segmentation method was used to identify the year of abrupt runoff

and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used to analyze the long-term variation trend of runoff

and the concentration degree and concentration period were used to study the inner-annual changing patterns of runoff. The results indicated that: (1) The annual runoff showed a significant decrease trend first with the decreasing rate of 2.715 mm/year before 1992

and then an increase trend after 1992. (2) The runoff in the humid season accounted for 71.6%±4.4% of the annual runoff

which dominated the runoff dynamic change of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. After the turning point

the increasing of runoff in the dry season was another important reason for the increasing trend of annual runoff. (3) The annual runoff distribution in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin presented a "smoothing phenomenon"

that was

the occurrence time of the maximum runoff was delayed and the annual distribution was more uniform

which might be attributed to the restoration and improvement of vegetation coverage in the region. The results obtained in this study could lay a good foundation for further identifying the role of climate change and underlying surface in runoff change process

and provide practical suggestions and guidance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environment.

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