伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析

伊丽努尔; 吉力力; 丁之勇; 孙杰

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.029

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伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析
- Analysis of the Difference of Runoff Variation and Its Influencing Factors in the Typical Small Watershed of Issyk-Kul Basin
- 水土保持学报 2020年34卷第6期页码：198-210
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 新疆大学绿洲生态重点实验室,乌鲁木齐,830046
  2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐,830011
  3. 中国科学院大学,北京,100049
  4. 中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心,乌鲁木齐,830011
  5. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京,100875
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "伊丽努尔·阿力甫江(1989-),女,讲师,主要从事中亚干旱区水文水资源研究。E-mail:elnur1103@163.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目（U1603242，41471173）
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.029
  中图分类号： K903
- 纸质出版：2020
- 稿件说明：
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伊丽努尔, 吉力力, 丁之勇, 等. 伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2020,34(6):198-210.

YILINUER·Alifujiang, JILILI·Abudouwaili, DING Zhiyong, et al. Analysis of the Difference of Runoff Variation and Its Influencing Factors in the Typical Small Watershed of Issyk-Kul Basin[J]. 2020, 34(6): 198-210.
伊丽努尔, 吉力力, 丁之勇, 等. 伊塞克湖典型小流域径流变化差异性及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2020,34(6):198-210. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.029.

YILINUER·Alifujiang, JILILI·Abudouwaili, DING Zhiyong, et al. Analysis of the Difference of Runoff Variation and Its Influencing Factors in the Typical Small Watershed of Issyk-Kul Basin[J]. 2020, 34(6): 198-210. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.029.

摘要

基于伊塞克湖流域近70年来气温、降水和径流量资料，采用Mann—Kendall法、突变检验和小波分析进行研究流域气温、降水和径流量的变化特征及差异性，在此基础上，探讨区域气候变化对径流量的影响。结果表明：（1）1951—2012年伊塞克湖典型小流域气温呈上升的趋势；其中，乔尔蓬-阿塔站（湖盆中部）和克孜尔苏站（东部）气温分别在1975年和1989年后上升趋势增大，秋季增温幅度均对气温升高的贡献较大；2个水文站降水量变化相对复杂，整体呈增加趋势，秋季降水量增加幅度最大。（2）受气温升高和降水量的直接影响，研究区4个典型水文站年径流量变化趋势不一致，乔尔蓬-阿塔、琼—阿克苏和琼—克孜尔苏站径流量呈明显增加趋势，曲线值分别在1987年、1983年和1987年后开始表现为增加趋势；而卡拉科尔站径流量呈明显下降趋势，曲线值在1982年后开始表现为下降趋势。从年内不同季节的径流分配来看，乔尔蓬-阿塔站和琼—克孜尔苏站径流量增加趋势明显，夏季增加幅度最大；而卡拉科尔站夏季径流量减少趋势明显，下降幅度最大。（3）通过皮尔逊相关分析法和主成分分析法分析，在年际尺度上，各水文站径流量与气温、降水量之间呈较显著的相关性，气温的升高与降水量的多少影响径流量产量的多少。（4）从周期性变化分析来看，气温、降水和径流量的周期性变化均比较明显，波动变化基本一致，表明径流量对气温和降水的响应较突出。

Abstract

Based on the temperature

precipitation and runoff data of Lake Issyk-Kul in the past 70 years

the Mann—Kendall method

abrupt change test

and wavelet analysis were used to study the characteristics and differences of the temperature

precipitation and runoff in the typical watershed. On this basis

the effects of regional climate change on runoff were also discussed. The results showed that: (1) The temperature in the typical small watershed of Issyk-Kul basin in 1951—2012 tended to increase; the temperatures in Cholpon- Ata Station (central lake basin) and Kyzyl—Suu Station (eastern part) rised from 1975 and 1989 respectively. The increasing trend of temperature in autumn had a greater contribution to the temperature increase. The variation of precipitation was relatively complicated

and the overall trend was increasing. Among them

the precipitation in autumn had the largest increase. (2) The annual runoff changes of 4 typical hydrological stations in the study area were not the same due to the direct influence of temperature and precipitation. The runoff of Cholpon-Ata

Chong-Ak-Suu and Chong- Kyzyl-Suu station showed an obvious increasing trend While Karakol Station showed a significant downward trend. The trend of autumn in each station was significant

showing an increasing trend. From the runoff distribution in different seasons in a year

the increase of runoff in El Pont and Chong- Kyzyl-Suu station was obvious with the largest increase in summer. However

the decrease of summer runoff in Cholpon-Ata station was the largest. (3)Through Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis

on the inter-annual scale

there was a significant correlation between the runoff of each hydrological station and the temperature and precipitation. The increase in temperature and precipitation affected the runoff output. (4) From the analysis of cyclical changes

the cyclical changes of temperature

precipitation and runoff were obvious

and the fluctuations were basically the same

indicating that the response of runoff to temperature and precipitation was prominent.

关键词

Keywords

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