不同频率黄河上中游径流量变化特征及其趋势预测

贾昊; 穆兴民; 赵广举; 高鹏; 孙文义

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.009

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不同频率黄河上中游径流量变化特征及其趋势预测

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 不同频率黄河上中游径流量变化特征及其趋势预测
- Variation Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Runoff in the Upper and Middle Yellow River with Different Frequencies
- 水土保持学报 2020年34卷第6期页码：60-64
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  2. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌,712100
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "贾昊(1995-),男,陕西西安人,硕士研究生,主要从事流域管理研究。E-mail:849507955@qq.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目（41271295）黄河流域河道淤积采砂对黄河水沙变化（K3010216019）
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.009
  中图分类号： TV882.1
- 纸质出版：2020
- 稿件说明：
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贾昊, 穆兴民, 赵广举, 等. 不同频率黄河上中游径流量变化特征及其趋势预测[J]. 水土保持学报, 2020,34(6):60-64.

JIA Hao, MU Xingmin, ZHAO Guangju, et al. Variation Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Runoff in the Upper and Middle Yellow River with Different Frequencies[J]. 2020, 34(6): 60-64.
贾昊, 穆兴民, 赵广举, 等. 不同频率黄河上中游径流量变化特征及其趋势预测[J]. 水土保持学报, 2020,34(6):60-64. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.009.

JIA Hao, MU Xingmin, ZHAO Guangju, et al. Variation Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Runoff in the Upper and Middle Yellow River with Different Frequencies[J]. 2020, 34(6): 60-64. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.009.

摘要

水资源是影响黄河流域高质量发展的战略资源，在人类活动及气候作用影响下，黄河上中游径流发生极大的变化，因此研究黄河径流变化特点及其预测对水资源的合理开发和分配调控具有重要生产意义。对黄河潼关水文站实测1950—2018年径流量进行分析，通过M—K等方法分析了黄河上中游区径流量变化特征，并预测未来20年不同频率径流量变化趋势。结果表明：黄河上中游1950—2018年径流量呈极显著性减少趋势；黄河潼关水文站径流变化突变点位于1985年，减少趋势较之前显著增加；通过优化后的GM （1，1）模型对5%及95%频率径流量进行预测，表明未来20年的径流量变化为113.38~210.35亿m3，并持续减少趋于稳定；该优化模型对黄河潼关水文数据有较好的模拟结果，适用于频率优化后低递减水文长序列的预测。

Abstract

Water resources are strategic resources that affect the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Under the influence of human activities and climate

the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River has undergone changes greatly. Therefore

the variation characteristics of the runoff in the Yellow River and their prediction have great importance on the rational development

allocation and regulation of water resources. This study used the runoff data measured from 1950 to 2018 at the Tongguan station of the Yellow River to analyze the characteristics of runoff changes in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River by M-K and other methods. The change trends of runoff at different frequencies in the next 20 years were also predicted. The results showed that the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River decreased significantly from 1950 to 2018; the runoff changing point of the Tongguan station of the Yellow River was located in 1985

and the decreasing trend was significantly higher than before; through the optimized GM (1

1) model

5% and 95% frequency runoff predictions indicated that the runoff change in the next 20 years would be 113.38 to 210.35 billion m3

and it would continue to decrease and stabilize; this optimized model had good simulation results for the Tongguan hydrological data of the Yellow River and was suitable for frequency optimized prediction of long sequences of low decreasing hydrology.

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