定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率

魏晓婷; 黄生志; 黄强; 王浩; 李沛; 刘东

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2019.06.026

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定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率

更新时间：2025-03-12

- 定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率
- Quantitative Decomposition of Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Seasonal Runoff Variability
- 水土保持学报 2019年33卷第6期页码：182-189
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安,710048
  2. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京,100038
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "魏晓婷(1995-),女,山东莱芜人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:761004439@qq.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目（51709221）陕西省水利科技计划项目（2017slkj-19，2015slkj-27）
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2019.06.026
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2019
- 稿件说明：
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魏晓婷, 黄生志, 黄强, 等. 定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率[J]. 水土保持学报, 2019,33(6):182-189.

WEI Xiaoting, HUANG Shengzhi, HUANG Qiang, et al. Quantitative Decomposition of Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Seasonal Runoff Variability[J]. 2019, 33(6): 182-189.
魏晓婷, 黄生志, 黄强, 等. 定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率[J]. 水土保持学报, 2019,33(6):182-189. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2019.06.026.

WEI Xiaoting, HUANG Shengzhi, HUANG Qiang, et al. Quantitative Decomposition of Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Seasonal Runoff Variability[J]. 2019, 33(6): 182-189. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2019.06.026.

摘要

变化环境下径流序列可能发生变异。当前径流变异的贡献率分解研究多集中于年尺度，而对季节尺度的关注不足。以黄土高原典型流域——泾河流域为研究对象，应用小波分析方法揭示其季尺度径流序列的演变规律，采用有序聚类法和累积距平法对其径流序列进行变异诊断，最后采用累计斜率变化率比较法定量分解气候变化和人类活动对其四季径流变异的贡献率。结果表明：（1）泾河流域夏季和冬季径流的周期变化均在20世纪90年代左右有发生转变，均由小尺度周期变化转变为较大尺度周期变化；（2）春、夏、秋和冬季径流分别在1969年、1996年、1985年和1990年发生变异；（3）人类活动对春、夏、秋和冬季径流变异的贡献率分别为50.40%，89.69%，39.14%和84.59%，在夏季和冬季人类活动（主要是水土保持措施的不断深入）对泾河径流变异的贡献占主导地位，且干扰影响了径流的周期变化。

Abstract

The abrupt change of runoff series may occur in the changing environment. At present

researches on the contributions of runoff variation mainly focus on the annual scale

but pay insufficient attention to the seasonal scale. In this paper

the typical watershed of the Loess Plateau

Jinghe River Basin

was taken as the research object. Firstly

the wavelet analysis method was used to reveal the evolution of seasonal runoff series. Then the order clustering method and cumulative anomaly method were used to diagnose the variation of runoff sequence. Finally

the contributions of climate change and human activities to the seasonal runoff variation were quantified by making a comparison of slope change ratio of the fitted beeline between year and accumulative quantity. Results showed that:(1) The period of summer and winter runoff shift from small scale to large scale after the 1990s; (2) Runoff variation occur in spring

summer

autumn

and winter in Jinghe river basin are 1969

1996

1985

and 1990

respectively; (3) The contribution rates of human activities to runoff variation in spring

summer

autumn

and winter are 50.40%

89.69%

39.14%

and 84.59%

respectively. The contribution of human activities (mainly soil and water conservation measures) to runoff variation was dominant in summer and winter

which mainly affected the periodic shift of runoff after the 1990s.

关键词

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