Analyzing the impact of climate change on agricultural production is beneficial to develop appropriate strategies and protect food security. In the study

the trends of meteorological factors in 1957-2013

and the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model in Northern Shaanxi Province. The results showed that the annual temperature in Northern Shaanxi increased at a rate of 0.22 ℃/10 a

while the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.15 mm/10a in 1957-2013. With an increase of 0.1 ℃ in the annual temperature

the winter wheat yield in Yulin and Yan’an increased by 1.5% and 0.5%

respectively. When annual CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol

the winter wheat yield increased by 3.8% and 2% in Yulin and Yan’an

respectively. When the annual temperature and CO2 concentration rose simultaneously (i.e.

temperature rose by 0.1 ℃ and CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol)

the winter wheat yield increased by 5.1% and 2.3% in Yulin and Yan’an

respectively. Only considering the variation of temperature and CO2 concentration

the warm-dry and high-carbon climate were beneficial to improve wheat production in Northern Shaanxi. The winter wheat yield would increase at different degrees in the next 18 years in the Northern Shaanxi region. Under three typical years (i.e. dry

normal and wet year)

the winter wheat yield in 2020

2025 and 2030 in Yulin would increase by 21.2% ~ 31.8%

25.4% ~ 36% and 29.7% ~ 40.7% respectively compared to that in 2012

whereas

the wheat yield in Yan’an would increase by 3.3% ~ 8.3%

4.4% ~ 9.7% and 4.8% ~ 10.5%

respectively. Therefore

it is suitable to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately to increase agricultural output in Northern Shaanxi.