Based on cultivated land statistic datum and social-economic materials between 1985 and 2000
this paper analyzes dynamic Change of cultivated land in three different economic regions of Chongqing
which are developed Beibei
less developed Wanzhou and backward Youyang. It is revealed that there are great difference in quantity and structure of cultivated land in these regions over 15 years. Beibei
which is more developed than Wanzhou and Youyang
rapidly reduced in cultivated land quantity and structure rate. Based on Principal Component Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression
it can be concluded that main driving forces in these regions affecting on cultivated land change are population growth
industrialization and urbanization
development of the third industry
mechanism of economic management
social conduct etc. Furthermore
their effects on cultivated land are diverse to some degree in different economic regions. Taking use of Grey Prediction Model GM(1
1)
it is predicted that cultivated land would continue to decrease and that cultivated land reduction rate of Beibei and Wanzhou would be steady
while the reduction rate of Youyang would be more rapid than before in the next ten year.