

浏览全部资源
扫码关注微信
东北农业大学公共管理与法学院, 哈尔滨150000
Received:31 December 2025,
Revised:2026-02-20,
Accepted:31 March 2026,
Online First:06 May 2026,
Published:28 August 2026
移动端阅览
李阳,邱新涵,李全峰,等.基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型的黑龙江省土地利用变化碳储量影响及预测[J].水土保持学报,2026,40(4):359-371.
Li Yang, Qiu Xinhan, Li Quanfeng, et al. Impacts of land use changes on carbon storage and prediction in Heilongjiang Province based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2026, 40(4):359-371.
李阳,邱新涵,李全峰,等.基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型的黑龙江省土地利用变化碳储量影响及预测[J].水土保持学报,2026,40(4):359-371. DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2026.04.032. CSTR: 32310.14.stbcxb.2026.04.032.
Li Yang, Qiu Xinhan, Li Quanfeng, et al. Impacts of land use changes on carbon storage and prediction in Heilongjiang Province based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2026, 40(4):359-371. DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2026.04.032. CSTR: 32310.14.stbcxb.2026.04.032.
目的
2
为分析黑龙江省土地利用格局时空变化对区域碳储量的影响,预测多情景下未来演变,定量揭示碳储量空间分异的主要驱动因子。
方法
2
基于1990—2020年黑龙江省4期土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector模型,分析土地利用格局变化及其碳效应,预测2060年自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护、城市发展4种情景下的土地利用与碳储量演变。
结果
2
1990—2020年全省碳储量净减少53.46×10⁷ t,空间上呈中间高、四周低,北高南低,山区高平原低的格局。林地转为耕地、草地及未利用地是碳损失的主要路径。多情景模拟表明,2060年碳储量表现为生态保护情景(2 012.71×10
7
t)
>
自然发展情景(2 000.59×10
7
t)
>
城市发展情景(1 996.01×10
7
t)
>
耕地保护情景(1 992.08×10
7
t)。地理探测器显示,碳储量空间分异主要受高程、距水域距离、NDVI等因子影响。因子间交互作用以双因子增强和非线性增强为主,其中DEM与年平均降水量、DEM与距河流距离、人口密度与DEM,DEM与NDVI的交互作用最强。
结论
2
历史阶段,黑龙江省林地转耕地、草地等导致碳储量持续净减少,未来预测生态保护情景下碳储量最大,以DEM为核心的因子交互作用主导碳储量空间分异。因此,未来黑龙江省需控制碳密度较高地类向碳密度较低地类转化,严格贯彻执行黑土地保护政策,实施生态保护措施。制定区域生态保护与经济发展政策时,需统筹自然与社会经济因素,促进黑龙江省区域经济可持续发展。
Objective
2
This study aims to analyze the impact of spatiotemporal changes in land use patterns on regional carbon storage in Heilongjiang Province, predict future evolution under multiple scenarios, and quantitatively identify the main driving factors of spatial differentiation in carbon storage.
Methods
2
Based on four periods of land use data in Heilongjiang Province from 1990 to 2020, the PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model was coupled to analyze changes in land use patterns and their carbon effects. Future land use and carbon storage in 2060 were simulated under four scenarios: Natural development, cultivated land protection, ecological protection, and urban development.
Results
2
From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage in Heilongjiang Province showed a net decrease of 53.46×10
7
t, with a spatial pattern of high in central regions and low in surrounding areas, high in the north and low in the south, and high in mountainous areas and low in plains. The conversion of forest land to cultivated land, grassland, and unused land was the primary pathway for carbon loss. Multi-scenario simulations indicated that carbon storage in 2060 followed the order: ecological protection scenario (2 012.71×10
7
t)
>
natural development scenario (2 000.59×10
7
t)
>
urban development scenario (1 996.01×10
7
t)
>
cultivated land conservation scenario (1 992.08×10
7
t). Geodetector analysis revealed that the spatial differentiation of carbon storage was mainly influenced by factors such as elevation, distance to water bodies, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Interactions among factors were mainly characterized by two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement, with the strongest interactions observed between digital elevation model (DEM) and annual precipitation, DEM and distance to rivers, population density and DEM, and DEM and NDVI.
Conclusion
2
During the historical period, the conversion of forest land to cultivated land and grassland in Heilongjiang Province led to a continuous net decrease in carbon storage. Future projections indicate that carbon storage is the highest under the ecological protection scenario, with factor interactions centered on DEM dominating the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Therefore, it is necessary to control the conversion of land types with higher carbon density to those with lower carbon density, strictly implement black soil protection policies, and adopt ecological protection measures. The impacts of natural and socio-economic factors should be comprehensively considered when formulating regional ecological protection and economic development policies, so as to promote the sustainable development of the regional economy in Heilongjiang Province.
毛永发 , 周启刚 , 王陶 , 等 . 耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型的三峡库区碳储量时空变化及其定量归因 [J]. 长江流域资源与环境 , 2023 , 32 ( 5 ): 1042 - 1057 .
Mao Yongfa , Zhou Qigang , Wang Tao , et al . Spatiotemporal variations and quantitative attribution of carbon stock in the Three Gorges Reservoir area using a coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin , 2023 , 32 ( 5 ): 1042 - 1057 .
甘容 , 沈家威 , 卞维龙 , 等 . 基于RHESSys模型的伊洛河流域碳储量估算及驱动因素分析 [J]. 环境科学 , 2025 , 46 ( 12 ): 7780 - 7792 .
Gan Rong , Shen Jiawei , Bian Weilong , et al . Carbon stock estimation and driving factor analysis of the Yiluo River basin based on the RHESSys model [J]. Environmental Science , 2025 , 46 ( 12 ): 7780 - 7792 .
张鹏岩 , 杨丹 , 刘宇 , 等 . 基于复合生态系统视角的土地利用变化碳源/汇效应研究进展 [J]. 生态学报 , 2025 , 45 ( 5 ): 2058 - 2073 .
Zhang Pengyan , Yang Dan , Liu Yu , et al . Research progress on carbon source/sink effects of land-use change from a composite ecosystem perspective [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica , 2025 , 45 ( 5 ): 2058 - 2073 .
陈宁 , 辛存林 , 唐道斌 , 等 . 中国西北地区多情景土地利用优化与碳储量评估 [J]. 环境科学 , 2023 , 44 ( 8 ): 4655 - 4665 .
Chen Ning , Xin Cunlin , Tang Daobin , et al . Multi-scenario land use optimisation and carbon stock assessment in Northwest China [J]. Environmental Science , 2023 , 44 ( 8 ): 4655 - 4665 .
Tang Xuli , Zhao Xia , Bai Yongfei , et al . Carbon pools in China′s terrestrial ecosystems: New estimates based on an intensive field survey [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , 2018 , 115 ( 16 ): 4021 - 4026 .
Steve M R , Lucy R H , Jared D . Mapping carbon storage in urban trees with multi-source remote sensing data: Relationships between biomass, land use, and demographics in Boston neighborhoods [J]. Science of the Total Environment 538 .( 2015 ): 1039 - 1041 .
侯建坤 , 陈建军 , 张凯琪 , 等 . 基于InVEST和GeoSoS-FLUS模型的黄河源区碳储量时空变化特征及其对未来不同情景模式的响应 [J]. 环境科学 , 2022 , 43 ( 11 ): 5253 - 5262 .
Hou Jiankun , Chen Jianjun , Zhang Kaiqi , et al . Spatiotemporal variations in carbon stock in the Yellow River source region based on InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS models and their responses to future scenario patterns [J]. Environmental Science , 2022 , 43 ( 11 ): 5253 - 5262 .
马银 , 郑敏睿 , 郑新奇 , 等 . 基于CA-Markov和MSPA的绿色基础设施预测与时空演变分析:以京津冀城市群为例 [J]. 生态学报 , 2023 , 43 ( 16 ): 6785 - 6797 .
Ma Yin , Zheng Minrui , Zheng Xinqi , et al . Prediction and spatiotemporal evolution analysis of green infrastructure based on CA-Markov and MSPA: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica , 2023 , 43 ( 16 ): 6785 - 6797 .
王超越 , 郭先华 , 郭莉 , 等 . 基于FLUS-In VEST的西北地区土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响:以呼包鄂榆城市群为例 [J]. 生态环境学报 , 2022 , 31 ( 8 ): 1667 - 1679 .
Wang Chaoyue , Guo Xianhua , Guo Li , et al . Land-use change in Northwest China and its impact on carbon stocks based on FLUS-In VEST: A case study of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban cluster [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica , 2022 , 31 ( 8 ): 1667 - 1679 .
智菲 , 周振宏 , 赵铭 , 等 . 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征 [J]. 水土保持学报 , 2024 , 38 ( 2 ): 205 - 215 .
Zhi Fei , Zhou Zhenhong , Zhao Ming , et al . Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon stock in Hefei's ecosystem based on PLUS and InVEST models [J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation , 2024 , 38 ( 2 ): 205 - 215 .
董春 , 杜林丹 , 张禹森 . 小兴安岭地区碳储量时空变化驱动机制及其对碳减排的贡献 [J]. 地质通报 , 2025 , 44 ( 7 ): 1242 - 1253 .
Dong Chun , Du Lidan , Zhang Yusen . Spatiotemporal variation mechanisms of carbon stock in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and their contribution to carbon emission reduction [J]. Geological Bulletin of China , 2025 , 44 ( 7 ): 1242 - 1253 .
赵胤程 , 覃盟琳 , 庞雅月 , 等 . 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的北部湾城市群生态空间碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素研究 [J]. 水土保持通报 , 2022 , 42 ( 3 ): 345 - 355 .
Zhao Yincheng , Qin Menglin , Pang Yayue , et al . Simulation of ecological space carbon sink evolution and driving factors in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration based on the FLUS-InVEST model [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation , 2022 , 42 ( 3 ): 345 - 355 .
李玉恒 , 赵宁 , 张云 , 等 . 东北黑土区土地生境质量演化及多情景预测:以黑龙江省为例 [J]. 环境科学 , 2025 , 46 ( 12 ): 7958 - 7970 .
Li Yuheng , Zhao Ning , Zhang Yun , et al . Evolution and multi-scenario prediction of land habitat quality in the northeast black soil region: A case study of Heilongjiang Province [J]. Environmental Science , 2025 , 46 ( 12 ): 7958 - 7970 .
魏熙乐 , 李倩 , 邓爱平 , 等 . 基于土地利用变化的四川省碳储量时空演变与预测及驱动因素分析 [J]. 水土保持研究 , 2025 , 32 ( 3 ): 373 - 383 .
Wei Xile , Li Qian , Deng Aiping , et al . Spatiotemporal evolution, prediction and driving factors analysis of carbon stocks in Sichuan Province based on land use change [J]. Research on Soil and Water Conservation , 2025 , 32 ( 3 ): 373 - 383 .
孙方虎 , 方凤满 , 洪炜林 , 等 . 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量演化分析与预测 [J]. 水土保持学报 , 2023 , 37 ( 1 ): 151 - 158 .
Sun Fanghu , Fang Fengman , Hong Weilin , et al . Analysis and prediction of carbon stock evolution in Anhui Province based on PLUS and InVEST models [J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation , 2023 , 37 ( 1 ): 151 - 158 .
巩晟萱 , 张玉虎 , 李宇航 . 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的京津冀碳储量变化及预测 [J]. 干旱区资源与环境 , 2023 , 37 ( 6 ): 20 - 28 .
Gong Shengxuan , Zhang Yuhu , Li Yuhang . Changes and projections of carbon stocks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the PLUS-InVEST model [J]. Resources and Environment in Arid Areas , 2023 , 37 ( 6 ): 20 - 28 .
蔡乐山 , 唐相龙 . 生态过渡带三生空间多情景模拟与碳储量评估:以甘肃省为例 [J]. 环境科学 , 2025 , 46 ( 6 ): 3806 - 3817 .
Cai Leshan , Tang Xianglong . Multi-scenario simulation and carbon stock assessment of the three-life space in ecological transition zones: A case study in Gansu Province [J]. Environmental Science , 2025 , 46 ( 6 ): 3806 - 3817 .
张平平 , 王飞 , 王蕾钦 , 等 . 黄土高原县域农业生产效率时空变化分析 [J]. 干旱地区农业研究 , 2018 , 36 ( 2 ): 218 - 225 .
Zhang Pingping , Wang Fei , Wang Leiqin , et al . Spatiotemporal variations in agricultural production efficiency at the county level in the Loess Plateau [J]. Agricultural Research in Arid Areas , 2018 , 36 ( 2 ): 218 - 225 .
杨洁 , 谢保鹏 , 张德罡 . 基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型的黄河流域碳储量时空变化研究 [J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文) , 2021 , 29 ( 6 ): 1018 - 1029 .
Yang Jie , Xie Baopeng , Zhang Degang . Spatiotemporal variations in carbon stock of the Yellow River basin based on InVEST and CA-Markov models [J]. Chinese Journal of Ecological Agriculture (Chinese and English) , 2021 , 29 ( 6 ): 1018 - 1029 .
Zhang Yu , Yuan Ji , You Chengming , et al . Contributions of national key forestry ecology projects to the forest vegetation carbon storage in China [J]. Forest Ecology and Management , 2020 , 462117981 - 117981 .
刘康 , 张寒 , 张道军 , 等 . 黄土高原生态系统碳储量情景模拟与驱动因素:基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型的研究 [J]. 中国环境科学 , 2025 , 45 ( 4 ): 2159 - 2170 .
Liu Kang , Zhang Han , Zhang Daojun , et al . Scenario simulation and driving factors of carbon stock in the Loess Plateau ecosystem: A study based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model [J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Science , 2025 , 45 ( 4 ): 2159 - 2170 .
王洪彦 , 郑文璐 , 盖兆雪 . 基于InVEST模型的黑土区碳储量时空分异特征 [J]. 环境科学学报 , 2024 , 44 ( 7 ): 473 - 481 .
Wang Hongyan , Zheng Wenlu , Gai Zhaoxue . Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of carbon stock in the black soil region based on the InVEST model [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae , 2024 , 44 ( 7 ): 473 - 481 .
于小博 , 周宇欣 , 蒲一帆 , 等 . 黑龙江省绥棱县多情景景观格局变化特征及碳储量时空演变分析 [J]. 北方园艺 , 2024 ( 2 ): 68 - 78 .
Yu Xiaobo , Zhou Yuxin , Pu Yifan , et al . Spatiotemporal analysis of landscape pattern dynamics and carbon stock evolution in multiple scenarios of Suiling County, Heilongjiang Province [J]. Northern Horticulture , 2024 ( 2 ): 68 - 78 .
李雪 , 李文 , 高宇 . 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的大庆市土地覆盖模拟与碳储量评估 [J]. 环境科学 , 2024 , 45 ( 10 ): 5983 - 5993 .
Li Xue , Li Wen , Gao Yu . Land cover simulation and carbon stock assessment of Daqing City based on the FLUS-InVEST model [J]. Environmental Science , 2024 , 45 ( 10 ): 5983 - 5993 .
詹泽东 , 西广越 , 任柄璋 , 等 . 黑龙江省齐齐哈尔五县碳存储量空间变化规律及固碳潜力研究 [J]. 地质通报 , 2024 , 43 ( 9 ): 1470 - 1484 .
Zhan Zedong , Xi Guangyue , Ren Bingzhang , et al . Spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential in five counties of Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province [J]. Geological Bulletin of China , 2024 , 43 ( 9 ): 1470 - 1484 .
齐宏运 , 周传芳 , 孙彦峰 , 等 . 基于碳足迹的黑龙江省黑河市农田生态系统碳源/汇时序变化及其对碳中和的贡献 [J]. 地质通报 , 2025 , 44 ( 7 ): 1254 - 1271 .
Qi Hongyun , Zhou Chuanfang , Sun Yanfeng , et al . Carbon source/sink temporal variations in farmland ecosystems of Heihe City, Heilongjiang Province based on carbon footprint analysis and their contribution to carbon neutrality [J]. Geological Bulletin of China , 2025 , 44 ( 7 ): 1254 - 1271 .
朴世龙 , 何悦 , 王旭辉 , 等 . 中国陆地生态系统碳汇估算:方法、进展、展望 [J]. 中国科学:地球科学 , 2022 , 52 ( 6 ): 1010 - 1020 .
Piao Shilong , He Yue , Wang Xuhui , et al . Estimation of China′s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink: Methods, progress and prospects [J]. Science China: Earth Sciences , 2022 , 52 ( 6 ): 1010 - 1020 .
焦燕 , 胡海清 . 黑龙江省森林植被碳储量及其动态变化 [J]. 应用生态学报 , 2005 ( 12 ): 2248 - 2252 .
Jiao Yan , Hu Haiqing . Carbon stock and its dynamic changes in forest vegetation of Heilongjiang Province [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica , 2005 ( 12 ): 2248 - 2252 .
李继红 , 支伟峰 , 陈文曲 , 等 . 基于RS的哈尔滨市土地利用变化对碳储量的影响 [J]. 森林工程 , 2018 , 34 ( 2 ): 40 - 44 .
Li Jihong , Zhi Weifeng , Chen Wenqu , et al . Impact of land use change in Harbin City on carbon stock based on remote sensing data [J]. Forest Engineering , 2018 , 34 ( 2 ): 40 - 44 .
熊国来 , 吴学群 , 杨明龙 , 等 . 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的喀斯特地区碳储量时空变化及影响因素分析 [J]. 水土保持研究 , 2025 , 32 ( 6 ): 307 - 315 .
Xiong Guolai , Wu Xuequn , Yang Minglong , et al . Analysis of spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of carbon stock in karst regions based on the PLUS-InVEST model [J]. Research on Soil and Water Conservation , 2025 , 32 ( 6 ): 307 - 315 .
赵慧 , 刘茜 , 张敏 , 等 . 基于XGBoost-SHAP模型的北京市生态系统服务空间格局及驱动因素分析 [J]. 环境科学 , 2026 , 47 ( 2 ): 1025 - 1037 .
Zhao Hui , Liu Qian , Zhang Min , et al . Analysis of the spatial patterns and driving factors of ecosystem services in Beijing based on the XGBoost-SHAP model [J]. Environmental Science , 2026 , 47 ( 2 ): 1025 - 1037 .
王益明 , 张增信 , 陈喜 . 基于PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的鄱阳湖生态经济区碳储量时空变化及驱动因素分析 [J]. 环境科学 , 2026 , 47 ( 7 ): 2720 - 2732 .
Wang Yiming , Zhang Zengxin , Chen Xi . Analysis of spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of carbon stocks in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone based on the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model [J]. Environmental Science , 2026 , 47 ( 7 ): 2720 - 2732 .
贾纪昂 , 郭伟玲 , 徐刘洋 , 等 . 耦合PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的安徽省碳储量时空演变及驱动力分析 [J]. 环境科学 , 2025 , 46 ( 3 ): 1703 - 1715 .
Jia Jiang , Guo Weiling , Xu Liuyang , et al . Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon stocks in Anhui Province using a coupled PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model [J]. Environmental Science , 2025 , 46 ( 3 ): 1703 - 1715 .
0
Views
42
下载量
0
CSCD
Publicity Resources
Related Articles
Related Author
Related Institution
京公网安备11010802024621