Spatial and Temporal Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Risk and Carbon Stock in Yunnan Province

XU Rui; ZHU Daming; WANG Lin; PENG Qiuzhi

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.024

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Spatial and Temporal Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Risk and Carbon Stock in Yunnan Province

更新时间：2025-03-14

- Spatial and Temporal Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Risk and Carbon Stock in Yunnan Province
- Vol. 39, Issue 1, Pages: 217-228(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明,650093
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.024
  CLC： X171.1
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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XU Rui, ZHU Daming, WANG Lin, et al. Spatial and Temporal Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Risk and Carbon Stock in Yunnan Province[J]. 2025, 39(1): 217-228.
DOI：

XU Rui, ZHU Daming, WANG Lin, et al. Spatial and Temporal Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Risk and Carbon Stock in Yunnan Province[J]. 2025, 39(1): 217-228. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.01.024.

摘要

目的探究土地利用生态风险与碳储量的关联性，以提高区域生态风险防范和固碳能力，从而有效指导环境管理政策的制定。方法利用景观格局指数、PLUS和InVEST模型，对自然发展、经济发展和生态保护情景下云南省土地利用生态风险和碳储量时空变化进行分析和预测。利用Spearman相关性分析和空间自相关分析探讨二者的关联特征。结果1) 云南省土地利用以林地为主，超过总面积的57%。2)2000—2020年云南省生态风险缓慢下降，较低和中风险面积超过50%，空间分布相对稳定，风险变化主要发生在相邻等级之间，高等级风险区向低等级风险区转移39 675.06 km2。3)云南省碳储量先增后减，2000—2020年共减少2.257×107 t，林地的碳储量贡献最大，耕地、草地和林地大面积转变为建设用地是造成碳储量减少的主要原因。4)2030年，3种情景下云南省生态风险和碳储量均下降。生态保护情景下，林地面积较2020年增加895.83 km2，较高和高生态风险面积显著减少，碳储量的减少得到抑制，说明该情景是云南省今后发展的最优情景。5)研究区生态风险与碳储量呈负相关，空间分布主要以低-高和高-低聚集为主。结论研究结果根据云南省生态风险和碳储量空间聚集特征提出不同建议，可为云南省生态风险防范和提升碳储量提供科学依据。

Abstract

ObjectiveTo explore the correlation between land use ecological risk and carbon storage

in order to improve the regional ecological risk prevention and carbon sequestration capabilities

so as to effectively guide the formulation of environmental management policies.MethodsThe landscape pattern index

PLUS and InVEST models were used to analyze and predict the spatial and temporal changes of land use ecological risk and carbon storage in Yunnan Province under the scenarios of natural development

economic development

and ecological protection. Spearman correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to explore the correlation characteristics.Results1) Land use in Yunnan Province is dominated by forest land

which exceeded 57% of the total area. 2) From 2000 to 2020

the ecological risk in Yunnan Province decreased slowly

with lower and medium-risk areas exceeding 50%

the spatial distribution remained relatively stable

the change of risk mainly occurred between adjacent levels

and the high-level risk area transferred to the low-level risk area by 39 675.06 km2. 3) Carbon storage in Yunnan Province initially increased and then decreased

with a total reduction of 2.257×107 t from 2000 to 2020. Forest land contributed the most to carbon storage

while large-scale conversion of cropland

grassland

and forest land into construction land was the main reason for the reduction in carbon storage. 4) The ecological risk and carbon storage of Yunnan Province would decrease under all three scenarios in 2030. Under the ecological protection scenario

forest land area would increase by 895.83 km2 compared to 2020

high and higher ecological risks would significantly decrease

and the reduction in carbon storage would be suppressed

indicating that this is the optimal scenario for the future development of Yunnan Province. 5) Ecological risk and carbon storage in the study area were negatively correlated

with spatial distribution mainly characterized by low-high and high-low aggregations.ConclusionThe study provides various recommendations based on the spatial aggregation characteristics of ecological risk and carbon storage in Yunnan Province

offering a scientific basis for preventing ecological risks and enhancing carbon storage in the region.

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