Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing: Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios

WEI Mengyu; BIAN Hongyan; GAO Jie; ZHANG Lujin; JIA Runxi; LI Haolin; WANG Linyong

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.023

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Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing: Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios

更新时间：2025-02-18

- Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing: Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios
- Vol. 38, Issue 5, Pages: 353-363(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西南大学地理科学学院,重庆,400715
  2. 重庆金佛山喀斯特生态系统野外科学观测研究站,重庆,400715
  3. 岩溶环境重庆市重点实验室,重庆,400715
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.023
  CLC： X826
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
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WEI Mengyu, BIAN Hongyan, GAO Jie, et al. Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing: Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios[J]. 2024, 38(5): 353-363.
DOI：

WEI Mengyu, BIAN Hongyan, GAO Jie, et al. Ecological Risk in the Mountainous Metropolis of Chongqing: Historical Assessment and Flows of SSPs-RCPs Scenarios[J]. 2024, 38(5): 353-363. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.023.

摘要

[目的] 重庆是位于西南丘陵腹地的特大都市区

人口集聚及粗放的经济发展导致城市景观的快速爬坡和蔓延

城乡二元及立体的空间结构

直接影响景观的结构、功能及可持续性

亟待开展生态风险的时空动态、坡谱特征及未来流转情景的预测。[方法] 基于1990—2020年及SSPs-RCPs的土地利用/覆被数据

整合景观生态风险评估模型

刻画重庆市的景观生态风险的时空动态及爬坡规律

预测2035年和2050年SSPs-RCPs 5种情景的生态风险及空间流转特征。[结果] (1)重庆生态风险指数由1990年的0.14下降到2020年0.12

生境质量总体提升

呈自然景观(除林地)＞人造景观的生态风险

其中城市景观随着城-乡的密度递减

生态风险呈递增趋势

草地的生态风险呈反向梯度;(2)渝东北和东南的大巴山及武陵山生态屏障区的风险低

渝西南及河谷丘陵区高

低和较低风险占全域面积90%以上;(3)89.4%的景观分布于坡度≥5°的地区

分布于坡度＞7.5°的生态屏障区的修复工程

显著降低高坡度水土流失或石漠化等风险;(4)比较2035年和2050年SSPs-RCPs的生态风险及空间流转情景

SSP1的发展路径最可持续

城市景观爬坡及蔓延区的生态风险将继续增加

长江沿岸消落带和武陵山、大娄山的陡坡区和矿山的治理及修复将有效降低风险。[结论] 山地都市区的景观可持续亟待科学-实践-政策的协同治理、科学的景观规划及管理与跨部门和公众的协作。

Abstract

[Objective] Chongqing is a mega-metropolis located in the southwestern hilly region. The rising population and extensive economic development have led to rapid urban landscape ascent and expansion

resulting in a dual urban-rural and 3D spatial structure directly influencing the landscape's configuration

functionality

and sustainability. It is urgent to conduct spatiotemporal dynamics

sloping characteristics

and future scenario predictions for regional ecological risk. [Methods] Based on the use of land use/cover data from 1990-2020 and SSPs-RCPs (2035 and 2050)

integrate the landscape ecological risk assessment model

portray the time and space dynamics and climbing laws of landscape ecological risks in Chongqing

predict the ecological risk and the flows of 5 SSPs-RCPs in 2035 and 2050. [Results] (1) The ecological risk index in Chongqing decreased from 0.14 in 1990 to 0.12 in 2020

indicating an overall improvement in habitat quality. Ecological risk was higher in natural landscapes (excluding forests)

compared to artificial landscapes (cultivated land and built-up land)

with urban landscapes showing an increasing ecological risk trend as urban-rural density decreased. Notably

grasslands exhibited an inverse ecological risk gradient. (2) The ecological risk was low in the northeast and southeast regions of Chongqing

including the Daba and Wuling Mountainous regions. In contrast

the southwestern region and hilly river valleys had high ecological risk. Low and moderately low-risk areas accounted for over 90% of the entire region. (3) Approximately 89.4% of landscapes were distributed in areas with a slope of ≥5°

and ecological restoration efforts in ecological barrier zones with a slope of >7.5° significantly reduced risks associated with steep slope erosion or rocky desertification. (4) Comparing ecological risks and spatial transition scenarios for 2035 and 2050 under different SSPs-RCPs

SSP1 demonstrated the most sustainable development pathway. The climbing and spreading of urban landscapes would lead to increased ecological risk

while effective risk reduction can be achieved through the management and restoration of the Yangtze River riparian zone

steep slope areas in the Wuling and Dalou Mountains

and mining sites. [Conclusion] The landscapes of the mountainous metropolis are sustainable which requires science-practice-policy collaborative governance

planning and management of scientific landscapes

and cross-department and public collaboration.

关键词

Keywords

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