Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2020

YANG Yuqian; PENG Shuangyun; LÜ Minghao; CHEN Xiaodi; GUO Xiu

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.021

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Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2020

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2020
- Vol. 38, Issue 3, Pages: 239-251(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 云南师范大学地理学部,昆明,650500
  2. 西部资源环境地理信息学技术教育部工程研究中心,昆明,650500
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.021
  CLC： F301.2
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
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YANG Yuqian, PENG Shuangyun, LÜ Minghao, et al. Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2020[J]. 2024, 38(3): 239-251.
DOI：

YANG Yuqian, PENG Shuangyun, LÜ Minghao, et al. Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1990 to 2020[J]. 2024, 38(3): 239-251. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.021.

摘要

[目的] 通过分析滇中城市群30年耕地非农化的演变路径、时空变化特征及驱动机制

为滇中城市群耕地资源的保护及精准管理提供理论依据。[方法] 基于滇中城市群土地利用数据和统计年鉴数据

运用重心迁移模型、变化轨迹模型、空间自相关分析、主成分分析等方法揭示1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化过程、空间分布特征及主要驱动因素。[结果] (1)从时间上看

滇中城市群耕地非农化面积呈波动下降趋势

2000年前后由年均增加约6.88×103 hm2转变为年平均减少约2.66×104 hm2

受政策、经济和城市化影响导致其变化最剧烈。从空间上看

耕地非农化集中分布于滇中城市群的中部、东部、东南部和东北部地区。(2)30年来

滇中城市群耕地非农化在空间分布上趋于均衡

区域间耕地非农化差异变小

空间格局趋于稳定。(3)滇中城市群耕地主要转出为林地和草地

少部分转化为建设用地

变化型耕地中有54.60%与草地相关

29.33%与林地相关

4.64%与建设用地相关

主要发生在滇中城市群的中部、北部、东南部和西北部的局部区域。(4)滇中城市群耕地非农化存在显著的空间聚集效应

以高—高聚集和低—低聚集为主

高—高聚集主要分布在中部、北部和东南部

低—低集聚主要分布在西北部、西部和西南部。(5)滇中城市群耕地非农化受社会经济和自然条件共同影响。社会经济中的农业人口、国有固定产投资和城市化率是耕地非农化最主要的驱动因素

影响系数分别为-0.18

0.11

0.10;而自然因素年平均降水量和年平均气温在耕地非农化空间分布和扩张过程起着关键性的作用

影响系数分别为0.17

-0.15。[结论] 研究结果揭示30年来滇中城市群耕地非农化的时空变化特征、演变路径及驱动机制。对合理利用和保护耕地资源

保障云南省粮食安全具有重要作用

在一定程度上可为滇中城市群的耕地保护和耕地布局优化提供决策参考。

Abstract

[Objective] By analyzing the evolution path

spatiotemporal variation characteristics

and driving mechanisms of farmland non agriculturalization in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration over the past 30 years

theoretical basis is provided for the protection and precise management of farmland resources in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. [Methods] Based on the land use data and statistical yearbook data of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration

the paper used methods such as gravity displacement model

change trajectory model

spatial autocorrelation analysis

and principal component analysis to reveal the process and spatial distribution characteristics of farmland conversion to non-agricultural uses in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2020

as well as the main driving factors. [Results] (1) From a temporal perspective

the non-agricultural area of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration showed a fluctuating downward trend

with an average annual increase of about 6.88× 103 around 2000 hectares converted to an average annual decrease of approximately 2.66× 104 hectares

with the most drastic changes due to policy

economic

and urbanization impacts. From a spatial perspective

the non-agricultural conversion of cultivated land was concentrated in the central

eastern

southeastern

and northeastern regions of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. (2) Over the past 30 years

the non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration has tended to be balanced in spatial distribution

with smaller regional differences in the non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land and a more stable spatial pattern. (3) The cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration was mainly converted into forests and grasslands

with a small portion converted into construction land. Among the variable cultivated land

54.60% was related to grasslands

29.33% was related to forests

and 4.64% was related to construction land

mainly occurring in the central

northern

southeastern

and northwestern regions of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. (4) There was a significant spatial clustering effect in the non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration

mainly characterized by high-high clustering and low-low clustering. High-high clustering was mainly distributed in the central

northern

and southeastern regions

while low-low clustering was mainly distributed in the northwest

western

and southwestern regions.(5) The non agriculturalization of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration was influenced by both socio-economic and natural conditions. The agricultural population

state-owned fixed asset investment

and urbanization rate were the main factors for the non-agricultural expansion of cultivated land in the social economy

with influencing coefficients of -0.18

0.11

and 0.10

respectively; The annual average precipitation and annual average temperature of natural factors played a crucial role in the spatial distribution and expansion process of non-agricultural land

with impact coefficients of 0.17 and -0.15

respectively. [Conclusion] The results have revealed the spatiotemporal change characteristics

evolution path

and driving mechanisms of farmland converted to non-agricultural land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration over the past 30 years. It plays an important role in rational utilization and protection of arable land resources and ensuring food security in Yunnan province

and to a certain extent

it can provide a decision-making reference for the protection and optimization of arable land layout in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

关键词

Keywords

references

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