Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt

DUAN Lian; LU Mingshen; CAI Yaojun; LING Yurong; FAN Tongsheng; LI Zhen

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.012

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Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt
- Vol. 38, Issue 1, Pages: 242-254(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院,南宁,530100
  2. 广西壮族自治区信息中心,南宁,530000
  3. 南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院,南宁,530100
  4. 广西森林资源与生态环境监测中心,南宁,530000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.012
  CLC： X171.1
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
DUAN Lian, LU Mingshen, CAI Yaojun, et al. Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt[J]. 2024, 38(1): 242-254.
DOI：

DUAN Lian, LU Mingshen, CAI Yaojun, et al. Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt[J]. 2024, 38(1): 242-254. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.012.

摘要

[目的] 丝绸之路经济带促进沿线各个国家和地区城市经济的快速发展

引起土地利用的深刻变化

研究该区域土地利用所引起的碳储量变化

对优化土地利用格局、实现双碳目标具有重要意义。[方法] 通过耦合PLUS-InVEST模型评估与预测21世纪海上丝绸之路中国沿线5个省市1980—2030年的土地利用碳储量情况

模拟多情景下土地利用碳储量时空特征

探究土地利用对碳储量影响。[结果] 50年间区域的耕地显著减少

建设用地显著增加

林地能够实现基本的动态平衡;50年间该区域的碳储量流失量巨大且流失速度不断加剧

碳储量减少区域主要位于南部粤港澳大湾区、北部上海、杭州地区和沿海岸线;通过现状与多情景分析

未来碳储量减少主要受耕地流失、建设用地激增的影响;在生态保护情景碳储量有所增加、维持建设用地水平的耕地保护情境下

碳储量大量减少。自然变化情景同经济加速发展情景碳储流失量相当。[结论] 通过研究碳储量与情景模拟相结合

可知研究区现处于经济加速发展状态

碳储量流失加剧是由于耕地流失与城市化的进程加速

减缓碳储量流失的关键因素是林地总量动态平衡;基于区域现状与发展地位

应在现有经济发展现状下

严格保障耕地和林地保有量

集约利用现有建设用地

对草地等生态用地提质

以维护区域生态碳储量水平。通过研究为实现海上丝绸之路经济与生态发展协调提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] The Silk Road Economic Belt facilitated rapid economic development in cities along its route

resulting in significant changes in land use. Investigating the carbon stock variations caused by land use in this region was crucial for optimizing land use patterns and achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. [Methods] The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to assess and predict the carbon stock situation in five provinces and cities along China’s Maritime Silk Road between 1980 and 2030. The model simulated the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon stock changes under multiple scenarios of land use

aiming to explore the impact of land use on carbon storage. [Results] The research findings indicate that over a span of 50 years

there has been a significant reduction in arable land and a substantial increase in construction land in the region. Forest land has managed to maintain a basic dynamic equilibrium during this period. However

there has been a considerable loss of carbon storage with an accelerating rate

primarily in the southern Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

northern Shanghai

Hangzhou

and along the coastal areas. [Conclusion] Through current status and multi-scenario analysis

it is projected that future carbon storage reduction will be primarily influenced by the loss of arable land and the rapid expansion of construction land. In scenarios focused on ecological preservation

there is some increase in carbon storage

while scenarios that maintain the current level of construction land result in a substantial decrease in carbon storage. It is evident that the region is currently experiencing accelerated economic development

with the exacerbation of carbon storage loss attributed to the loss of arable land and the acceleration of urbanization. The key factor in mitigating carbon storage loss lies in maintaining a dynamic balance in the total forest land area. Considering the current economic development status and regional position

it is advisable to rigorously safeguard the quantity of arable and forest land while intensively utilizing existing construction land. Furthermore

enhancing the quality of ecological land

such as grasslands

is recommended to preserve the regional ecological carbon storage level. This research provides valuable insights for achieving a harmonious balance between economic and ecological development in the context of the Maritime Silk Road initiative.

关键词

Keywords

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