Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau

LIU Yaxuan; PENG Qiuzhi; HUANG Peiyi; CHEN Di

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.004

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Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau
- Vol. 38, Issue 1, Pages: 207-219(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明,650093
  2. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都,610041
  3. 云南省自然资源与规划智慧创新实验室,昆明,650093
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.004
  CLC： K903
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
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LIU Yaxuan, PENG Qiuzhi, HUANG Peiyi, et al. Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau[J]. 2024, 38(1): 207-219.
DOI：

LIU Yaxuan, PENG Qiuzhi, HUANG Peiyi, et al. Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau[J]. 2024, 38(1): 207-219. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.01.004.

摘要

[目的] 区域碳储量与土地利用密切相关。在"双碳"目标下

从碳储量视角开展重点区域土地利用变化预测研究

对协调与优化区域土地利用格局、提高区域生态系统未来固碳潜力具有重要参考价值。[方法] 以川西高原为研究区

以2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用为数据源

预测不同情景下2030年土地利用

结合修正的土地利用碳密度数据和InVEST模型估算区域碳储量变化。[结果] (1)从各地类相对研究区的面积占比变化看

2000—2020年草地从65.20%逐步缩减到63.65%

林地从31.73%不断扩张到32.92%

未利用地先减后增且净增0.57%

水域和耕地先增后减均净减0.11%

湿地持续增加

共净增0.07%;研究区2000年、2010年、2020年碳储量分别为24.26×108

24.29×108

24.27×108 t

呈先增后减趋势。(2)与2020年相比

2030年自然发展情景下碳储量减少3.19×105 t

在耕地保护情景、生态保护情景、耕地生态联合保护情景下将分别固碳4.29×106

9.72×106

9.60×106 t。[结论] 扭转未利用地的扩张趋势

在保持耕地面积的基础上继续稳步推行生态保护政策

提高川西高原陆地生态系统固碳潜力并助力其成为重要"碳汇"区域应成为川西高原国土空间规划和管控的关注重点。

Abstract

[Objective] Regional carbon storage is closely related to land use. Under the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"

researches about land use change calculations in significant regions play an important role on coordinating and optimizing regional land use patterns

improving the future carbon sequestration potential of regional ecosystems. [Methods] Taking Western Sichuan Plateau as the study area this paper predicts land use changes under different scenarios from 2020 to 2030

and estimates regional carbon storage changes by using revised land use carbon density data and land use data in 2000

2010 and 2020. [Results] (1)From 2000 to 2020

grassland gradually decreased from 65.20% to 63.65%

forest continuously expanded from 31.73% to 32.92%

unused land firstly decreased and then increased and the net increase rate is 0.57%

water area and farmland firstly increased and then decreased and their net decrease rate is 0.11% and 0.11%

wetlands continued to increase by 0.07%; The carbon reserves of the study area in 2000

2010 and 2020 were 24.26×108

24.29×108

24.27×108 t

showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.(2) Carbon storage reduced 3.19×105 t under natural development scenario. Under farmland protection scenario

ecological protection scenario

and farmland ecological joint protection scenario

their carbon sequestration will be respectively 4.29×106

9.72×106

9.60×106 t. [Conclusion] Reversing the increasing trend of unused land

continuing to steadily implement ecological protection policies with maintaining the cultivated land area

improving the carbon sequestration potential

and helping the Western Sichuan Plateau become an important "carbon sink" area should become the key points of land spatial planning and control on the Western Sichuan Plateau.

关键词

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references

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