Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City

FENG Guoping; TIAN Guohang

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.028

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City
- Vol. 37, Issue 6, Pages: 219-227(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  河南农业大学风景园林与艺术学院,郑州,450002
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.028
  CLC：
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
FENG Guoping, TIAN Guohang. Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City[J]. 2023, 37(6): 219-227.
DOI：

FENG Guoping, TIAN Guohang. Spatio-temporal Distribution and Prediction of Carbon Source and Sink Based on Land Use in Zhumadian City[J]. 2023, 37(6): 219-227. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.028.

摘要

土地覆盖变化是引起陆地生态系统碳源/汇变化的重要原因

研究土地利用转型与碳源/汇关系对优化区域土地利用规划

实现可持续发展与"双碳"目标具有重要意义。运用空间分析技术对碳源/汇的时空变化进行分析

通过预设3种未来发展情景对驻马店市未来碳源/汇变化进行预测。结果表明:(1)驻马店市净碳排放量由2005年的268.13×104 t增加到2020年的578.04×104 t

增加309.91×104 t

呈现逐年增加趋势。(2)驻马店市土地利用转型表现为碳储量减少的过程主要为耕地转为建设用地和林地转为耕地

碳储量增加主要为耕地转为林地、建设用地转为水域。(3)通过灰色模型以及PLUS模型预测驻马店市未来土地利用及碳源/汇的时空变化

预测结果为驻马店市未来净碳排放量持续上升

但在耕地保护情景下上升趋势明显减缓。在保护耕地基础上

驻马店市在未来土地规划中

要控制建设用地向生态用地的扩张

加快农业技术改革

实现低碳循环发展。

Abstract

Land cover change is a significant factor contributing to the variation in carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial ecosystem. Investigating the relationship between land use transition and carbon dynamics is crucial for optimizing regional land use planning and achieving sustainable development and the "dual carbon" goals. This study employed spatial analysis technology to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of carbon sources and sinks. By considering three future development scenarios

it predicted the future dynamics of carbon sources and sinks in Zhumadian City. The results showed that: (1) The net carbon emission of Zhumadian City had exhibited an increasing trend

rising from 268.13×104 t in 2005 to 578.04×104 t in 2020

with an increment of 309.91×104 t. (2) Land use transitions in Zhumadian City involved a reduction in carbon stocks primarily due to the conversion of cropland to construction land and forestland to cropland

while the increase in carbon stocks primarily stemmed from the conversion of cropland to forestland and construction land to water area. (3) Applying the grey model and PLUS model

future spatiotemporal changes in land use and carbon dynamics in Zhumadian City were projected. The results indicated a continuous rise in net carbon emissions

although the rate of increase significantly slowed down under the scenario of cultivated land protection. Based on the preservation of cultivated land

Zhumadian City should restrain the expansion of construction land into ecological areas

expedite agricultural technological reforms

and foster low-carbon circular development.

关键词

Keywords

references

张燕,师学义,唐倩.不同土地利用情景下汾河上游地区碳储量评估[J].生态学报,2021,41(1):360-373.

Jin G, Wang P, Zhao T, et al. Reviews on land use change induced effects on regional hydrological ecosystem services for integrated water resources management[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C,2015,89/90:33-39.

Stocker B D, Yu Z C, Massa C, et al. Holocene peatland and ice-core data constraints on the timing and magnitude of CO

emissions from past land use[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2017,114(7):1492-1497.

谢宇剑,沈正平,赵洁.基于土地利用变化情景的徐州市生态系统碳储量评估[J].国土与自然资源研究,2022(4):13-21.

赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.南京市不同土地利用方式的碳储量与碳通量[J].水土保持学报,2012,26(6):164-170.

胡欢,章锦河,熊杰,等.河北省碳源/汇测算及碳减排压力分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(3):61-67.

王少剑,莫惠斌,方创琳.珠江三角洲城市群城市碳排放动态模拟与碳达峰[J].科学通报,2022,67(7):670-684.

Liang X, Guan Q F, Clarke K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China[J].Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,2021,85:e101569.

蒋小芳,段翰晨,廖杰,等.基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究[J].干旱区研究,2022,39(4):1246-1258.

吴佩君,刘小平,黎夏,等.基于InVEST模型和元胞自动机的城市扩张对陆地生态系统碳储量影响评估:以广东省为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(5):22-28.

Liang Y J, Liu L J, Huang J J. Integrating the SD-CLUE-S and InVEST models into assessment of oasis carbon storage in northwestern China[J].PLoS One,2017,12(2):e0172494.

杨潋威,赵娟,朱家田,等.基于PLUS和InVEST模型的西安市生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测[J].自然资源遥感,2022,34(4):175-182.

驻马店市统计局.驻马店统计年鉴[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.

驻马店市统计局.驻马店统计年鉴[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.

驻马店市统计局.驻马店统计年鉴[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2021.

Zhao N Z, Liu Y, Cao G F, et al. Forecasting China’s GDP at the pixel level using nighttime lights time series and population images[J].GIScience and Remote Sensing,2017,54(3):407-425.

曾娟. 基于碳排放约束的广州市土地利用数量结构优化研究[D].广州:广州大学,2013.

曹志宏,秦帅,郝晋珉.河南省农业生产碳汇的演变趋势及其集聚特征分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(9):1283-1290.

王伟歌.城市碳排放测算研究:以郑州市为例[J].环境科学与管理,2015,40(4):13-16.

王莉,刘莹莹,张亚慧,等.河南省农田生态系统碳源/汇时空分布及影响因素分解[J].环境科学学报,2022,42(12):410-422.

陈舜,逯非,王效科.中国氮磷钾肥制造温室气体排放系数的估算[J].生态学报,2015,35(19):6371-6383.

方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等.1981—2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2007,37(6):804-812.

段晓男,王效科,逯非,等.中国湿地生态系统固碳现状和潜力[J].生态学报,2008,28(2):463-469.

杨立,郝晋珉,艾东,等.基于区域碳平衡的土地利用结构调整:以河北省曲周县为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2293-2301.

李键,毛德华,蒋子良,等.长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放因素分解及脱钩效应研究[J].生态经济,2019,35(8):28-34,66.

Xia C Y, Li Y, Xu T B, et al. Quantifying the spatial patterns of urban carbon metabolism: A case study of Hangzhou, China[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,95:474-484.

Zhang S H, Zhong Q L, Cheng D L, et al. Landscape ecological risk projection based on the PLUS model under the localized shared socioeconomic pathways in the Fujian Delta region[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,136:e108642.

陈理庭,蔡海生,张婷,等.基于Markov-FLUS模型的饶河流域土地利用多情景模拟分析[J].生态学报,2022,42(10):3947-3958.

袁雪.基于PLUS模型的武汉市土地利用变化情景模拟与景观生态风险研究[D].江西抚州:东华理工大学,2022.

牛统莉,熊立华,陈杰,等.基于PLUS模型的长江流域土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测.武汉大学学报(工学版):1-16(2023-06-14).https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1675.T.20230313.1823.002.html.

谭美秋,崔耀平,马晓哲等.河南省农田生态系统碳汇核算研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2022,38(9):1129-1137.

Chambers A, Lal R, Paustian K. Soil carbon sequestration potential of US croplands and grasslands:Implementing the 4 per thousand initiative[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,71(3):68A-74A.

王喜,鲁丰先,秦耀辰,等.河南省碳源/汇的时空变化研究[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):941-951.

Views

711

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in Three Gorges Reservoir Region Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Effects of China′s Land Use Changes on Regional Climate Based on RegCM 4.7

Response of Ecological Profit and Loss to Land Use Change in the Agro-pastoral Ecotone in Northeast China

Response of Soil Microbial Diversity, Community Structure, and Functional Potential to Primary Forest Conversion in Northwestern Hunan Province

Quantitative Effects of Land Use and Vegetation Cover Changes on Soil Erosion in Changting County in Recent 30 Years

Related Author

HU Xinyi

XIAO Zuolin

QIN Chuan

CHENG Xin

CHEN Jilong

JÜ Jialing

HU Manli

ZHAO Zilong

Related Institution

Chongqing River Affairs Center

Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology， Chinese Academy of Sciences

Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Monitoring and Evaluation of Rural Land Utilization， School of History and Geography， Chengdu Normal University

Chongqing Key Laboratory of GIS Application， School of Geography and Tourism， Chongqing Normal University

Jiangsu Jiawang Resource Exhausted Mining Area Land Restoration and Ecological Succession， Ministry of Education Field Scientific Observation and Research Station

⁰