Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River

SHI Weizhao; HE Yi; SHAO Yiting

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River
- Vol. 37, Issue 3, Pages: 124-131(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安,710127
  2. 陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安,710127
  3. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  4. 浙江水利水电学院水利与环境工程学院,杭州,310018
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017
  CLC： P333.1
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
SHI Weizhao, HE Yi, SHAO Yiting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River[J]. 2023, 37(3): 124-131.
DOI：

SHI Weizhao, HE Yi, SHAO Yiting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Upper Reaches of Jialing River[J]. 2023, 37(3): 124-131. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.017.

摘要

近年来

受气候变化与人类活动的双重影响

许多国内外河流的河川径流都受到强烈影响。以嘉陵江上游西汉水的礼县水文站控制流域为研究区

在对1960—2016年研究区年径流量进行突变点分析和趋势分析的基础上

使用8种基于Budyko假设的气候弹性系数法的水量平衡方程式进行流域径流变化归因分析。结果表明:(1)研究区潜在蒸散发呈显著增加趋势(p＜0.01)

径流量呈显著减小趋势(p＜0.01)

降水量呈不显著减少趋势(p＞0.1)

径流量的突变点发生在1994年

并以此为界

把研究时段划分为基准期和变化期;(2)8种基于Budyko假设的方法得出的气候变化对于径流减少的贡献率为40%~50%

人类活动贡献率为50%~60%

占主导作用。在气候变化中

8种方法得出的流域降水的敏感性系数为2~3

流域蒸散发的敏感性系数为-1~-3;(3)人类活动对于径流减少的主要作用形式是通过改变下垫面来表现的。由于植被保护措施实施

1990—2010年研究区域的林地面积增加68.42 km2

在所有土地类型中变化最大

表明人类活动对于下垫面的影响显著。

Abstract

In recent years

due to the dual impact of climate change and human activities

the runoff in many domestic and foreign rivers has been strongly affected. The control basin of Lixian Hydrologic Station in the Xihanshui River basin of the upper reaches of Jialing River was taken as the study area. On the basis of abrupt change point analysis and trend analysis of annual runoff from 1960 to 2016

eight water balance equations of climate elasticity based on the Budyko frame were used to analyze the attribution of runoff changes. The results showed that: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the study area showed a significant increasing trend (p＜0.01)

the runoff showed a significant decreasing trend (p＜0.01)

and the precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend (p＞0.1). The abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1994

and the study period was divided into the base period and the change period. (2) The contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction by 8 methods based on Budyko hypothesis ranged from 40% to 50%

the contribution of human activities is between 50% and 60%

taking the leading role. In climate change

the sensitivity coefficient of precipitation obtained by the eight methods is between 2 and 3

and the sensitivity coefficient of evapotranspiration is between -1 and -3. (3)The main effect of human activities on the reduction of runoff is represented by changing the underlying surface. Due to the implementation of vegetation protection measures

the forest area in the study area increased by 68.42 km2 from 1990 to 2010

the largest change among all land types

indicating that the significant impact of human activities on the underlying surface.

关键词

Keywords

references

Shao Y T, He Y, Mu X M, et al. Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment discharge reductions in the Jialing River, amain tributary of the upper Yangtze River, China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2021,145(3/4):1437-1450.

范利杰,穆兴民,赵广举.近50年嘉陵江流域径流变化特征及影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(1):12-17.

宫渊波,张君,陈林武,等.嘉陵江上游不同植被类型小流域典型降雨产流特征分析[J].水土保持学报,2010,24(2):35-39.

关春晖.嘉陵江上游茨坝水文站水文特性分析[J].甘肃科技,2016,32(18):53-54.

叶婷,石朋,钟华,等.基于Budyko假设和微分方程的淮河上中游径流变化归因分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2022,50(5):25-32.

杜嘉妮,蔡宜晴,刘希胜,等.基于Budyko假设的湟水径流变化归因识别[J].中国农村水利水电,2022(7):116-121.

周珍.基于Mann-Kendall的嘉陵江流域降水量时空分布规律研究[J].水资源开发与管理,2021(3):25-28,42.

段文明,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域近50年降水量演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):97-101.

王涛,王进,吴彦昭.60年来西汉水流域降水径流演变特征及影响分析[J].人民长江,2020,51(6):89-94.

Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO irrigation and drainage Paper 56[M].Rome:FAO,1998.

Schreiber P. Uber die beziehungen zwischen dem niederschlag und wasserfuhrung der flu βe in mitteleuropa[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,1904,21(10):441-452.

Ol'dekop E M. On evaporation from the surface of river basins[M].Transactions on meteorological observations(in Russian).Tarm,Estonia:University of Tartu,1911:200-201.

Budyko M I. Evaporation under Natural Conditions[M].English Translation by IPST:Leningrad,Gidrometeorizdat,Jerusalem,1948:120-121.

Pike J G. The estimation of annual run-off from meteorological data in a tropical climate[J].Journal of Hydrology,1964,2(2):116-123.

Fu G B, Charles S P, Chiew F H S. A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43(11):2578-2584.

Zhang L, Dawes W R, Walker G R. Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale[J].Water Resources Research,2001,37(3):701-708.

Choudhury B J. Evaluation of an empirical equation for annual evaporation using field observations and results from a biophysical model[J].Journal of Hydrology,1999,216(1/2):99-110.

Wang D B, Tang Y. A one-parameter Budyko model for water balance captures emergent behavior in darwinian hydrologic models[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2014,41(13):4569-4577.

章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒.基于中国气象资料的趋势检验方法对比分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):490-496.

Pettitt A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series C,1979,28(2):126-135.

Schaake J C, Waggoner P E. From climate to flow[J].Climate Change and US Water Resources,1990,8:177-206.

Arora V K. The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on annual runoff[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,265(1/4):164-177.

张棋,郑水明,叶雪珠,等.浙江省生态循环农业发展实践模式和对策[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(8):4900-4901,4904.

李小根,段小芳,付景保,等.基于GIS的丹江口水库土地利用/覆被动态变化特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2022,43(3):90-98.

董梁蕴,董好刚,牛瑞卿,等.基于遥感的郑州市近十年土地利用时空变化及驱动力分析[J].华南地质,2021,37(4):398-405.

Views

745

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Attribution Identification of Runoff Change Before and After Impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Budyko Hypothesis

Variation Characteristics of Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1961 to 2015

Quantitative Decomposition of Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Seasonal Runoff Variability

Characteristics and Attribution of Vegetation Coverage Change in the Manas River Basin, Xinjiang

Study on the Variation and Attribution of Runoff and Sediment in Xinshui River Watershed of Middle Yellow River

Related Author

LI Yineng

SHI Ruibo

ZHOU Yulin

WEI Xing

CHEN Meng'en

XU Zongxue

LIU Liu

WANG Xuanxuan

Related Institution

School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University

College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University

Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University

College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University

Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology

⁰