Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model

SUN Fanghu; FANG Fengman; HONG Weilin; LUO Hao; YU Jian; FANG Li; MIAO Yuqing

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.01.021

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Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model
- Vol. 37, Issue 1, Pages: 151-158(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽,芜湖,241002
  2. 江淮流域地表过程与区域响应安徽省重点实验室,安徽,芜湖,241002
  3. 环境激素与生殖发育安徽省重点实验室,安徽,阜阳,236037
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.01.021
  CLC： K903
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
SUN Fanghu, FANG Fengman, HONG Weilin, et al. Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model[J]. 2023, 37(1): 151-158.
DOI：

SUN Fanghu, FANG Fengman, HONG Weilin, et al. Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model[J]. 2023, 37(1): 151-158. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.01.021.

摘要

为探讨安徽省土地利用变化对碳储量的影响

揭示碳储量时空演化特征和未来变化趋势

通过耦合InVEST模型碳储存模块和PLUS模型

分析1990—2018年安徽省土地利用类型和碳储量时空演化特征

并从自然发展和生态保护情景预测2034年、2050年安徽省碳储量变化趋势。结果表明:安徽省1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的碳储量分别为1 218.37×106

1 215.65×106

1 211.39×106

1 206.18×106 t

呈现逐年减少趋势

主要由于耕地、林地被侵占。此外

省内土地利用类型空间差异显著

碳储量整体表现为"皖南较高、皖北皖中较低"的空间分布特征。不同情景预测表明

自然发展情景下

安徽省2034年和2050年的碳储量分别为1 197.93×106

1 196.08×106 t;生态保护情景下

其碳储量分别为1 202.89×106

1 200.37×106 t。与自然发展情景相比

生态保护情景下建设用地扩张受到限制

森林、草地等高碳密度地类得到保护

碳储能力提升。研究结果为深入厘清安徽省碳储量时空格局奠定基础

以期为安徽省深入实施可持续发展战略、加快推进生态省建设和"双碳"战略规划提供科学参考。

Abstract

To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Anhui Province

and reveal the spatial-temporal evolution and future trend of carbon storage

this study coupled carbon storage module of InVEST model and PLUS model to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2018

and to predict the change trend of carbon storage in Anhui Province in 2034 and 2050 from natural development and ecological protection scenarios. The results showed that the carbon storage of Anhui Province in 1990

2000

2010 and 2018 was 1 218.37×106

1 215.65×106

1 211.39×106 and 1 206.18×106 t

respectively. The carbon storage decreased year by year

which was caused by the occupation of cultivated land and forest land. In addition

the land use types in Anhui province varied spatially

and the overall carbon storage was much higher in the southern part than that in northern and central part. According to the results of scenario simulation

carbon storage in Auhui province under the natural development scenario would be 1 197.93×106 and 1 196.08×106 t in 2034 and 2050

respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario

the carbon storage would be 1 202.89×106 and 1 200.37×106 t in the same period. Compared with the natural development scenario

the expansion of construction land under the ecological protection scenario would be limited

and the high carbon density land types such as forests and grasslands would be protected

and the carbon storage capacity would be improved. These results could lay foundation for further clarifying the spatial and temporal pattern of carbon storage in Anhui Province and provide scientific references for further implementation of sustainable development strategy

acceleration of ecological province construction and "dual carbon" strategic planning in Anhui Province in the future.

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