Prediction of Vegetation Variation and Vegetation Restoration Potential in the Loess Plateau

ZHAO Guangju; MU Xingmin; TIAN Peng; GAO Peng; SUN Wenyi; XU Wenlong

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.030

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Prediction of Vegetation Variation and Vegetation Restoration Potential in the Loess Plateau

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Prediction of Vegetation Variation and Vegetation Restoration Potential in the Loess Plateau
- Vol. 35, Issue 1, Pages: 205-212(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  2. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌,712100
  3. 西北农林科技大学资源与环境学院, 陕西杨凌,712100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.030
  CLC： S157.2
- Published：2021
- 稿件说明：
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ZHAO Guangju, MU Xingmin, TIAN Peng, et al. Prediction of Vegetation Variation and Vegetation Restoration Potential in the Loess Plateau[J]. 2021, 35(1): 205-212.
DOI：

ZHAO Guangju, MU Xingmin, TIAN Peng, et al. Prediction of Vegetation Variation and Vegetation Restoration Potential in the Loess Plateau[J]. 2021, 35(1): 205-212. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.01.030.

摘要

采用GIS技术与地统计方法，基于黄土高原2000—2018年的MODIS遥感影像，选取归一化植被指数探讨研究区植被时空变化特征，采用相似生境法预测黄土高原植被恢复潜力。结果表明：黄土高原2000—2018年低植被盖度区域面积减少，高植被覆盖度面积不断增加。黄河中游头道拐至龙门区间植被变化最为显著，平均增长速率为0.015~0.050/a，其中，延河上游、清涧河及秃尾河流域的植被盖度增长速率最高，均超过了0.015/a。受城市化影响，汾渭平原的下游干流区植被盖度显著降低。相似生境法预测黄土高原未来植被恢复潜力的空间差异性显著，东南部地区植被盖度接近或达到最大恢复潜力，无恢复空间；在丘陵沟壑区和风沙区的交错地带部分地区植被盖度较现状仍有25%~50%的提升潜力。由于黄土高原植被受退耕还林草工程影响，人工植被干扰强烈，受到该区降雨与水分承载力限制，未来植被恢复需调整植被类型、优化植被结构与格局，提升区域生态系统功能。本研究结果可为黄土高原未来植被恢复与水土保持规划与布局提供理论与方法支撑。

Abstract

This study employed GIS and geostatistics technology to explore the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation from 2000-2018 by using the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS images. The potential of vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau was predicted by similar habitat method. The results showed that during 2000-2008

the area with low vegetation coverage decreased

while the area with high vegetation coverage increased in the Loess Plateau. The vegetation cover showed evident increasing rate (0.015 ~ 0.050/year) in the region between Toudaoguai and Longmen

and significant increasing (over 0.015/year) in vegetation cover were examined in the Yanhe

Qingjian and Tuwei River basin. A significant decreasing in the vegetation cover was observed in the downstream of Wei-Fen plain due to rapid urbanization. Similar habitat method indicated that the spatial difference of future vegetation restoration potential was significant

and the vegetation cover in the southeastern Loess Plateau had reached its maximum recovery potential

therefore there was no restoration space. There was still 25% ~ 50% potential for vegetation cover increasing in the cross areas of hilly gully and windy sandy areas. Due to the influence of the project of returning farmland to forest and grassland

the artificial vegetation had strong interference

and considering the limitation of the rainfall and water carrying capacity of the this region

we proposed that future vegetation restoration should focus on selecting local plant species

optimizing vegetation structure to improve ecological service functions. The results of this study could provide theoretical and methodological support for future vegetation restoration and soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau.

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