Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470

TIAN Peng; MU Xingmin; ZHAO Guangju; HU Jinfei; GAO Peng; SUN Wenyi

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.010

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Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470
- Vol. 34, Issue 6, Pages: 65-69(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北农林科技大学资源与环境学院, 陕西杨凌,712100
  2. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  3. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌,712100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.010
  CLC： TV882.1
- Published：2020
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
TIAN Peng, MU Xingmin, ZHAO Guangju, et al. Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470[J]. 2020, 34(6): 65-69.
DOI：

TIAN Peng, MU Xingmin, ZHAO Guangju, et al. Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470[J]. 2020, 34(6): 65-69. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2020.06.010.

摘要

天然径流量是流域气候及下垫面综合作用的结果，同时是流域水资源分配的重要依据。深入探究长时间序列年径流量时间变化特征对流域水资源调控以及水资源可持续利用意义重大。基于黄河1470—2018年长时间序列天然径流量数据，综合采用EMD经验模态分解法、滑动平均法以及距平累积法揭示黄河549年间天然径流量的年际变化与周期变化特征。结果表明，黄河年天然径流量变化过程具有显著的随机特征，随年份不同呈现波动性变化，5%及95%频率的年天然径流量分别为337.0亿m3和681.0亿m3。采用距平累积法可将黄河近549年天然径流序列以1825年为界分为2个时期；黄河年天然径流量以2.8年变化周期最为显著，其次为23.8年、47.3年、5.6年、11.3年周期规律，出现该周期性规律主要是由于太阳黑子活动、厄尔尼诺现象以及地极移动振幅变化因子的影响。

Abstract

Natural runoff reflects the effects of climate change and land surface variation

which is important for water resources allocation in the basin. Further understanding long-term variations in natural runoff is of great significance in water resources management. This study applied the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD)

moving average method and anomalous accumulation method to reveal the temporal and periodical changes in natural runoff with long-term data from 1470 to 2018 in the Yellow River basin. The results showed that annual natural runoff had a significant random characteristic

showing wet-dry fluctuations within different periods. The annual natural runoff at 5% and 95% frequency were 33.70 billion m3 and 68.10 billion m3

respectively. The natural runoff of the Yellow River could be divided into two periods by the year of 1825. The EMD method showed that the natural runoff had a significant periodical cycle of 2.8 years

followed by 23.8 years

47.3 years

5.6 years and 11.3 years. The periodic feature was mainly influenced by the Sunspot activity

El Niño phenomenon and the amplitude changes factor of earth pole movement.

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