Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin

SHI Chen1; YUAN Shibao2; SHI Changqing1; ZHAO Tingning1

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2018.02.039

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Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin
- Vol. 32, Issue 2, Pages: 264-269(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京,100083
  2. 北京市园林绿化局,北京,100013
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2018.02.039
  CLC： P333
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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SHI Chen1, YUAN Shibao2, SHI Changqing1, et al. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin[J]. 2018, 32(2): 264-269.
DOI：

SHI Chen1, YUAN Shibao2, SHI Changqing1, et al. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin[J]. 2018, 32(2): 264-269. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2018.02.039.

摘要

以滦河流域为研究区域，应用敏感性分析和双累积曲线法分析气候变化和人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响，结果表明：研究区流域径流存在明显的下降趋势，与基准期（1956—1979年）相比，变化期（1980—2013年）径流量减少了52.59 mm（50.43%）；滦河流域径流对降水的敏感性系数?Q/?P为0.336 1，对潜在蒸散发的敏感性系数?Q/?E0为-0.123 5，气候变化影响量为22.23 mm；滦河流域径流变化过程中，人类活动影响量为32.07 mm，其贡献率为57.26%，远大于气候变化的影响39.69%，人类活动的影响是导致滦河流域径流减少的主要因素。

Abstract

In this study

Luanhe basin was chose as the study area

and sensitivity analysis and double mass curve were used to analyze the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff. The results showed that the runoff in Luanhe basin decreased obviously

and the runoff in the change period (1980—2000) decreased 52.59 mm (50.43%) compared with the reference period (1956—1979); the sensitivity coefficients of runoff to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were 0.336 1 and -0.123 5

respectively; in this change

the impact of climate change was 22.23 mm

while the impact of human activities was 32.07 mm and accounted for 57.26%

which was far greater than the climate change (39.69%).The human activities were the main impact factors causing the decrease of runoff in the Luanhe River basin.

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