Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi

doi:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2017.05.045

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Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi

更新时间：2025-03-12

- Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi
- Vol. 31, Issue 5, Pages: 292-297(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安理工大学，西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地,西安,710048
  2. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所，黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室，陕西杨凌,712100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2017.05.045
  CLC： S162.5+3
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi[J]. 2017, 31(5): 292-297.
DOI：

Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi[J]. 2017, 31(5): 292-297. DOI： 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2017.05.045.

摘要

分析气候变化对农业生产的影响，有利于制定相应的对策，保障粮食安全。在分析陕北地区1957-2013年气温、降水等气象因子变化趋势的基础上，利用AquaCrop作物生长模型模拟分析气温及CO2浓度等气象因子变化对陕北地区冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明：陕北地区1957-2013年平均气温呈上升趋势，上升速率为0.22 ℃/10 a，平均降水量呈下降趋势，下降速率为0.15 mm/10 a。气温每升高0.1 ℃，榆林和延安两地冬小麦分别增产1.5%和0.5%；CO2浓度每增加10 μmol/mol，两地冬小麦分别增产3.8%和2.0%；气温和CO2浓度同时变化（即气温升高0.1℃同时CO2浓度增加10 μmol/mol），两地冬小麦分别增产5.1%和2.3%。仅考虑气温及CO2浓度变化，陕北地区“暖干+高碳型”气候有利于提高冬小麦生产力，未来18年陕北地区冬小麦产量将实现不同程度的增产，在3种不同典型年下与2012年相比，榆林地区2020，2025，2030年枯水年、平水年和丰水年冬小麦分别增产21.2%~31.8%，25.4%~36.0%，29.7%~40.7%；延安相应3种典型年下增产3.3%~8.3%，4.4%~9.7%，4.8%~10.5%。因此，可在陕北地区适度增加冬小麦种植面积，增加农业产量。

Abstract

Analyzing the impact of climate change on agricultural production is beneficial to develop appropriate strategies and protect food security. In the study

the trends of meteorological factors in 1957-2013

and the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model in Northern Shaanxi Province. The results showed that the annual temperature in Northern Shaanxi increased at a rate of 0.22 ℃/10 a

while the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.15 mm/10a in 1957-2013. With an increase of 0.1 ℃ in the annual temperature

the winter wheat yield in Yulin and Yan’an increased by 1.5% and 0.5%

respectively. When annual CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol

the winter wheat yield increased by 3.8% and 2% in Yulin and Yan’an

respectively. When the annual temperature and CO2 concentration rose simultaneously (i.e.

temperature rose by 0.1 ℃ and CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol)

the winter wheat yield increased by 5.1% and 2.3% in Yulin and Yan’an

respectively. Only considering the variation of temperature and CO2 concentration

the warm-dry and high-carbon climate were beneficial to improve wheat production in Northern Shaanxi. The winter wheat yield would increase at different degrees in the next 18 years in the Northern Shaanxi region. Under three typical years (i.e. dry

normal and wet year)

the winter wheat yield in 2020

2025 and 2030 in Yulin would increase by 21.2% ~ 31.8%

25.4% ~ 36% and 29.7% ~ 40.7% respectively compared to that in 2012

whereas

the wheat yield in Yan’an would increase by 3.3% ~ 8.3%

4.4% ~ 9.7% and 4.8% ~ 10.5%

respectively. Therefore

it is suitable to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately to increase agricultural output in Northern Shaanxi.

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